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In the Wall Street Journal on 3/14/20 there was an article comparing the Wuhan flu (coronavirus) in South Korea vs. Italy. The main drift of the article was comparing the populace of an Eastern culture with that of a Western culture. To paraphrase, the influence of Confucianism in Eastern cultures emphasizes respect for authority, and the good of the nation above individualism. In contrast in Western cultures there is widespread skepticism  toward authority. Take for example, the public pressure that forced the relaxing of a 6 p.m. curfew on bars in Milan. Oops!

The other significant thing that I noticed in this article was “ the influence of the denominator,” which turns out to be a very significant influence of any statistics. For those of you who are somewhat math handicapped, I will try to explain. It is actually a very simple concept. Basically, if the denominator increases while the numerator stays the same, the resultant percent decreases. 

Italy and South Korea have comparable populations. although Italy has about 15% more people. . . . Italy = 60 million, South Korea = 52 million. In Italy, initially, testing for the virus was restricted to those with symptoms (about 3,000 tests per day) whereas South Korea was performing more than 15,000 tests per day. The incidence of the Wuhan flu was the following:

Italy = 17,660 cases/ 97,488 tested for incidence of about 18%. So.Korea = 7,979 cases/240,668 tested for incidence of about 3%. So what is the true incidence of infection? . . . it depends on the denominator. Likewise, for the mortality:
Italy = 1,286deaths/17,660 cases for a mortality of about 7%. So. Korea = 67deaths/7,979 cases for a morality of 0.8 %. So what is the true mortality? Here it is a bit more complicated, as it depends on who is included in the denominator. If the denominator includes all of those tested, many of whom were minimally symptomatic or even asymptomatic, (South Korea) then the number of cases in the denominator will be skewed, and the mortality will be much less. Likewise, if the denominator is made up mostly of older, sicker people, (Italy) the denominator will also be skewed, but in the opposite direction. The same will apply here in the U.S. . . . what is the denominator? If, as is the situation in Washington State, the denominator is predominately made up of those in nursing homes and their close contacts, then the mortality will be much higher than the overall mortality once drive-through testing becomes widely available and the denominator is drastically increased.

So how dangerous is this Wuhan flu? It depends on the denominator!

From now on I am going to refer the the present outbreak as the “Wuhan flu.” Why? Well basically it is a variety of influenza similar to what we get every year. Obviously, there are some significant differences. The most significant is its ability to spread rapidly, because of two things. First,the RO, (which tells us how many are likely to be infected from a single individual) is above 2.0. In other words it is likely to be easily spread from person to person. Adding to its “spreadability” is the fact that it has a significantly longer incubation period than the typical virus, upwards of two weeks, and so people can spread this infection for a long time before they realize that they are sick.
How does the Wuhan flu measure up with yearly and other more serious past flu epidemics? 
Seasonal influenza is bad enough. It is estimated that kills between 3,600 – 49,000 people in the U.S In a year, and between 250,000 and 500,000 globally.
We know that the present outbreak is not as deadly as the SARS epidemic of 2003, which killed about 10% of the 8,098 confirmed cases of the respiratory illness In 2012. And the Wuhan flu is far less deadly than the 2012 MERS, which killed about 34% of approximately only 2,500 confirmed cases.

In 2009-2010 it was the Swine flu (H1N1), which infected 61 million Americans and killed about 12,000, which included 282 children. To me this is a quandary. Why are children and young adults either less susceptible to the present Wuhan flu, or perhaps, better said, less likely to have a severe form of Wuhan flu? For instance, in China the mortality for those <40 years old was 0.2%, and similarly in South Korea, where in those younger 60 years the mortality was quite low. In other words this Wuhan flu appears to be significantly less severe for those < 60, and even progressively less severe, the younger one is. Why?

Follow me with this logical presumption . . . a large percent of common colds are due to garden variety corona viruses (obviously different strains). Could it be that because young children are “sick, just about all the time with snotty runny noses,” they have a lot of antibodies and thus a relative immunity to the Wuhan strain of the corona virus? If this postulate is true, then I would expect that pre-school and kindergarten teachers would be less likely to get this variety of flu. 

We’ll see.

I would guess that most of you are familiar with Jim Acosta. Yes that schmuck who is the chief White House correspondent for CNN. I have to admit something embarrassing. Today I found myself agreeing with that CNN loudmouth! Now before anyone jumps to a foolish conclusion . . . no, I was not watching CNN, as my TV still, for some reason, cannot get CNN.

Actually I was watching Mike Pence and his daily update on the coronavirus on Fox News. At the end, as usual, there was some time for questions. Many of the questions were thinly disguised attempts to trap the Vice President. One question had to do with whether President Trump should order the closure of all schools. This was one of those “you can only be wrong” questions . . . If you say “no, do not close the schools,” and a large high school has a student with the virus, you will get fried in the press. On the other hand, if you answer, “yes, close all the schools,” and there is not one case in a student, then you will get fried because you have disrupted the lives of millions of families by making the kids stay home. The answer given was at this time to let every state decide for itself, as it would be ludicrous to close all the schools in a state that has only a few, or even zero cases.

Next it was Jim Acosta who in essence asked why the President is still going around shaking hands, when that is one of recognized ways of spreading this disease. The answer was actually a mumbled ridiculous hodge-podge of an answer that avoided the question.  Here, drum roll please . . . I agree with what Acosta was insinuating. President Trump should not be shaking hands with anybody for basically two reasons. First, to set an example for the rest of the country, he should not be shaking hands in public. And in addition, for his own safety he should not be shaking hands with anybody in public or in private. I certainly would not put it past some liberal nut-job to try to purposely try to shake hands with the President, solely to give him the coronavirus!

The last question had to do with the President and his “Make America Great “ rallies., “Shouldn’t he cancel these rallies?” No real answer was given to that question either, but rather another Tennessee two-step answer that really was not an answer. Again a question with no real answer, but actually the only good answer should be “yes, he should cancel them for the time being.” Again here my reasoning is two-fold: first, lead by example Mr. President! And second, why risk infecting the avid Trump fans at these rallies, when some liberal nut-job could be there specifically to infect Pro-Trumpers?

You heard it here first!

Two of the Democratic strongholds are in for big trouble financially in the near future. First let’s consider  Cook County, IL(Chicago). The American College of Cardiology (ACC) just this morning at 9:36 EST, cancelled its annual convention scheduled for Chicago at the end of this March. In the past, this convention has had upwards of about 15,000 attendees. With drug company reps, and spouses of physicians and nurses, this number typically rises considerably. Now in one fell-swoop, the rug was just pulled  out from under The Windy City. The sales tax rate in Cook County (Chicago) is one of the highest in the country, and so the millions of dollars that was going to go into the city’s coffers . . . Poof! Gone! Hotels, restaurants, and their suppliers . . . suddenly nada, and big big loss of tax revenue for the city. Likewise, taxis, ubers, airport shuttles, etc., also nada, and so it goes. Less and less tax revenue for a city already deep in the hole.

The other big Democratic stronghold that will find itself in big trouble because of COVID-19 is California. As I am sure most everybody is aware California has one of the highest income tax rates in the country. When a recession hits, and make no mistake there will be a recession because of COVID-19, states with highest income tax rates will be hit the hardest. Hollywood will take a significant hit, as who is going to want to go to a movie theater and sit with a lot of strangers? A big hit to Hollywood revenue means a big hit to California. Less income to Hollywood means less tax revenue to California. California has three NBA teams and if these games are cancelled or played before empty stadiums, another big hit to the Golden State. Likewise with the five  Major League Baseball teams. Apple has been making most of its iPhone components in China, and less iPhones means less Apple revenue, and so less tax revenue for the Sacramento politicians to spend. Here I have mentioned only the big players in California, but coming recession-associated job layoffs will take another big toll on Californians taxable incomes.

Californians, gird you’re loins.

You heard it here first!

The last I heard this Coronavirus (COVID-29) is in 99 of 195 countries, and has infected over 105,000 people. Keep in mind that these numbers are increasing almost every hour, and certainly every day. Some are comparing COVID-19 to the 1918 flu pandemic, which, according to the CDC, had a mortality rate of > 2.5% compared to a mortality of <0.1% with other influenza pandemics. The WHO has recently revised the mortality rate of COVID-19 to 3.4%.

Okay, wash your hands and keep them away from your face. Now, just about everybody has heard these simple precautions, but yesterday I still found workers at various businesses extending their hand to shake my hand. This is discouraging news, as this is a relatively simple way to spread this infection from person to person. The estimated R0 of COVID-19 is 2-3. (This means the the average infected person will spread this infection to 2-3 others.) According to The Lancet, this suggests that 50-60% of the population could well eventually be infected, because the population is naive to this new virus.

This is all bad news!

How should individuals, and how should the country approach COVID-19? Obviously the U.S.A. cannot impose mandatory quarantines on individuals, like was done in China. Individuals could certainly quarantine themselves . . . but for how long? What is practical?

 Should individuals voluntarily restrict themselves from situations where there will be large crowds? Some would say, obviously yes, but what if you had tickets to March Madness? These tickets are not cheap, and you may have been waiting a long time for them. Going to a Final Four game may be on your Bucket List. What to do? What is practical? 

In the same vein, the games that lead up to the Final Four will also expect 10-20,000 or so at multiple games on multiple different days at multiple different sites, all high population centers. Would anyone dare recommend that the NCAA cancel this tournament? Perhaps these games should be played in empty arenas, devoid of fans. What is practical?

In Italy, there have already been soccer games played in empty stadiums. Of course, there is an ongoing outbreak in Italy, so this restricting of the fans seems logical. However, in San Jose, the profession hockey team (N.H.L.) reportedly refused a request to play its game in an empty arena, as was suggested. There are multiple professional basketball, professional hockey, and professional soccer games being played every day. Just about all in high population centers. Should these be cancelled or be played in empty arenas or stadiums? What is practical? 
Should the fact that every restriction and cancellation will have an economic consequence be of any importance? Cancelled airline flights, cancelled conventions, cancelled sporting events, and cancelled festivals all have economic consequences. For example the upcoming South by Southwest (SXSW) festival in Austin typically attracts about 100,000 people. Should it be cancelled? What would be the economic consequences for the city of Austin? What is practical?

I do not pretend to have the answers to these practical questions, but keep in mind that “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet”!

When one thinks of Chuck Schumer, does the limbo come to mind?  It does to me!  I am hearing a lot mumbling, some “WTF-ing!” But bear with me.
When his obit is eventually written, what will be its predominant theme? What will he be remembered for? What adjectives will be used to describe his “illustrious” career?Will he be remembered as a lawyer? After all he did go to law school. However, despite the fact that he graduated from Harvard Law School in 1974, he has never practiced law. So no, he will not be remembered as a lawyer.

Will he be remembered as being obstreperous? (Yes, I had to look up this word this word also!) To rephrase the question . . . will he be remembered as noisy, clamorous and boisterous? . . .Yes, probably!
Will he be know as a foreign policy guru? Unlikely, as never conducted any foreign policy. He has never sat across a negotiating table, other than one with other politicians.
Will he be known as a garrulous partisan who exaggerates and blows things out of proportion? Ummm, yes, he does fit this description. For instance, last year he referred to the handling of illegal immigrants and their children as “the worst thing I can have ever seen in America.” Perhaps Chuckie has never heard of the Japanese internment during WWII, or worse yet slavery, with hundreds of thousands of human beings being denied liberty, forced to work long hours, live in miserable conditions – and being beaten or worse. Schumer should be reminded of the thousands of families that were separated in the slave markets and the women raped without legal recourse. When I think of Chuckie, I immediately picture him standing next to Nancy Pelosi,  giving the world his impression of a docile lapdog.
All that notwithstanding, his actions lately have firmly implanted “limbo” in my mind whenever Chuckie’s name is mentioned. (Although I do not know him personally, I doubt that he will be remembered as a dancer! I can’t even imagine him trying to squeeze under the limbo pole.) 
So why “limbo?”  Chuckie’s threatening of Supreme Court Justices earlier this week is beyond the pale, and will forever remind me of the chorus of “Limbo Rock” by Chubby Checker . . . “How low can you go?”
3/6/20

I have a riddle for you.

What race can you potentially win if you stop running?

Yes, I did just make this riddle up just this past Monday. I’ll give you a hint . . . it’s a political riddle. Are you stumped? 

Well think about what happened with the Democrat’s primary race. Voila, suddenly the number of candidates has magically thinned. 

Steyer, gone! 

Buttigieg, gone! 

Klobuchar, gone! 

(I hope that I have spelled the last two names correctly. I never was very sure how to spell their last names, and I now refuse to look up the proper spelling of either of these losers!)

Was this sudden disappearance of these three a Houdini-like coincidence? Perhaps . . . and do you also believe in the tooth fairy? A hint . . . nothing that the Dems do is a coincidence. The “poof, I’m gone” scenario was choreographed. Choreographed just before Super Tuesday. Choreographed by “those in the know,” because the Dems are afraid of Bernie!

Now it’s a real horse race! The Democrat handicappers now think that Sleepy Joe is now their “pie-in-the-sky” hope to overtake Bernie. Now that he has won one primary, that single South Carolina primary, to some, Biden is now “Beetlebomb” coming from the back of the pack. Coming on to overtake the prior front-runner, Sanders, as miraculously, just by happenstance, the long shots have suddenly pulled up lame.

Just for fun, let’s assume that Sleepy Joe wins the race and gets the nomination in, for sure, what is shaping up to be a Contested Convention. Who will be his V.P. choice? Is it possible that it could be either Buttigieg or Klobuchar? Hmmm! Now I get it!

Both Buttigieg or Klobuchar are hoping to get the nod, and hence either of them could win this V.P. race because they stopped running in the primaries!

The riddle is solved!

The novel corona virus situation is not eliciting  a novel response from the Democrats. Chuck Schumer was bloviating against President Trump from the beginning. Excuse my French, but he is truly a 3D Democrat . . . Disingenuous, Despicable, and Disgusting . . . and here I am only using comparatively nice words to describe that pompous P.O.S. Here we are at the beginning of a potentially dangerous problem, and all Schumer can do is play politics.President Trump appointed Vice President Pence to be in charge of coordinating the response to this problem. The VPOTUS said, “The president said to me, look, I want you to reach out to the Republican and Democratic leadership. Because we want to push politics aside, we want to make sure that we get the resources that we need to respond to this, to make sure the CDC, all of our agencies, have the support that they need.”Supposedly in a phone call with Pence, Speaker Pelosi  ripped Pence as unequipped to manage the federal government’s response. Nancy Pelosi is indeed just another 3D Democrat . . . disgraceful, detestable, disreputable . . . again I am trying to use relatively nice words to describe her.For once could either Schumer or Pelosi support bipartisan efforts address this corona virus situation? I guess the answer to that question is becoming self-evident. However when one stops and thinks about the present political situation, their recalcitrant and obstructive behavior should not be surprising. Despicable and disgraceful ? . . . Yes! Surprising ? . . . No!At the present time the Democrats are in chaos. Sanders is leading, and those “in the know”  realize that he will have a very difficult time beating President Trump in a general election. Biden, although he is recovering from his horrific start, is still a faux-pas machine, spitting them out faster all the time . . .  the latest was that when elected, he was going to appoint a black woman as a Senator . . . OMG! Bloomberg appears to have a lot things in his closet, like multiple non-disclosure agreements, and if he cowers against Warren at a debate, what would happen to him when he had to be on the debate stage with President Trump. Warren is apparently hoping for a Co tested Convention, as the people do not like her.Anyway the Dems realize that they are in trouble in 2020. It is not hard to imagine them thinking . . . what could be better than a tanking economy, a retreating stock market, etc. So what if IRAs get hit hard. So what if a few people die with this novel corona virus, or better yet, if more than just a few get sick and die? Trump must go down, and if there are some innocent casualties along the way . . . so be it!

Let’s hope that this novel corona virus turns out to be less of an issue than is presently being predicted . . . for the good of the country!

President Trump spent two days this past week in India. When he arrived in Ahmedabad, in western part of the country, he was greeted by folk dancers, percussionists, an flutists. I would guess that they were not Democrats.

Next he went from the airport to a stadium. This eight mile route was lined with thousands of spectators, singing and waving a myriad of welcoming signs and banners. I think it is safe to assume that these throngs of people were not Democrats! When he arrived at the filled 110,000-seat stadium, he was greeted by more pure energy. Nearly everyone was wearing baseball caps inscribed with a probable Indian version of MAGA, “Namaste Trump!” Again this enthusiastic crowd . . . probably not Democrats!

The Rolling Stones, Elton John, and the Beatles were played wherever he went, just like at Trump’s political rallies. Someone, probably not a Democrat, had done his homework to make our President feel at home.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump agreed to a number small agreements and their interaction was overwhelmingly cordial. It was obvious that the Indian Prime Minister was neither a Pelosi nor a Schumer . . . thank God!!

There was an interesting dichotomy in today’s morning paper. On the front page one of the headlines read, “Auditor: Lottery Didn’t Pay Schools Millions.”

On the first page of the Local section, the headline read: “Learning Centers Might Close.”

First a little about the nuts and bolts of each of these articles.

The California State Lottery was created in 1984 via a ballot measure that required 34% of the lottery sales revenue to go to schools, and capped administrative expenses at 16%. This sounds pretty straight forward although it is unclear where the other 50% goes. But then in 2010 the Legislature (predominately Democrats, with a Democratic Governor) voted you allow “a smaller percentage to go to education as long as lottery managers used ‘best practices’.” . . . whatever that means! To be clear, apparently the California Legislature thought it was okay in 2010 for them to change the parameters of the Lottery Act that the people approved back in 1984! On 2/25/20 state officials released an audit alleging that the management of the California Lottery short-changed schools by millions of dollars (is “short-changed” actually just another more polite way of saying “stole, cheated, or swindled?”). The auditor initially stated that the deficit was $69 million. That amount was then reduced to $36 million. This sounds like a convenient plea bargain sort of arrangement . . . from $69 million to $36 million does not sound like just a misplaced decimal point! More important into whose pockets did these millions of dollars go? This type of skullduggery is a perfect example of why I vote “No” on all the ballot propositions. 

And in an unrelated piece of lottery related chicanery there is an investigation into the lottery’s gift  of 30,000 Scratchers tickets, worth $212,500, to “The Ellen DeGeneres Show.” These Scratchers were then handed out to the studio audience!

As I recall the Lottery Act of 1984 was supposed to benefit California schools not audience members of a TV show . . . Hmmmm!

As far as the article in the Local section, the Sweetwater Union High School District School Board proposed cuts that would save the district $20 million in 2021 budget. Why so much? . . . err, the district currently has a $30 million budget shortfall! How does a school district manage to have a $30 million budget shortfall? Three potential reasons: increasing pension costs, increasing number of administrators with increasing salaries, decreased funding from the state, or . . . Pay close attention here . . . Mismanagement, gross mismanagement by the school board. Notice I did not accuse anyone of a crime. The last I checked, stupidity is not a crime! Also notice that I did not mention teacher’s salaries.

One wonders if some of the “misplaced” $36 million of lottery (for schools) money could actually be used here to help schools in the Sweetwater School District!