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My buddy, Randy, related an interesting analogy to me today. Yes, of course we were at least six feet apart!

He reminded me that last year we were at the Del Mar Fair on the first day. After we approached the Super Tilt O Whirl, we read the warnings. The last line on the warning sheet said that your chance of dying on that ride was one in one-hundred (0.01). Did we go on that ride? . . . No way! When we went back the next day, some safety improvements to the ride had been made, and now the recalculated risk of death was now one in one-thousand (0.001), and we started to think about it. The next day the odds were one in ten-thousand (0.0001). We thought it over, and decided that these were good odds, and so we went on the ride that day and had fun like normal people do.

In retrospect we were certainly very conscientious and cautious and did not go on that particular ride until the odds were greatly in our favor . . . 1 in 10,000 are certainly very good odds. Agreed??

As of yesterday eighty-seven people in San Diego County (SDC) have died because of the Wuhan coronavirus. SDC has over three million people, and so therefore the risk of dying of the coronavirus here is 87/3,000,000 (0.00003). [Just for interest’s sake let’s say that the number of deaths from this virus was triple what it actually is . . . 261 instead of 87. If that were so, the risk of dying from the coronavirus would be 261/3,000,000 (0.00009)- still dramatically less than the risk of dying on the Super Tilt O’Whirl] In addition the median age of those succumbing to this virus in SDC is 80 years of age. If you were 80, I would not recommend that you go on the Super Tilt O’Whirl. Why? . . . because at age eighty that ride would be way too risky for you because of your other underlying conditions . . . heart disease, stroke, etc.

In other words if you are close to eighty do not ride the Super Tilt O’Whirl, and self quarantine yourself because you are at higher risk of dying of the coronavirus. For everyone else in SDC use good judgement. 

This seems to me like good old-fashioned common sense. 

Can someone please tell me why here in SDC we are not using common sense?

In Orange County they filled in outdoor skate parks with sand to try to make it unusable. . . . too risky! As of last week Orange County had 28 deaths from the Wuhan virus. For a population of almost 3,000,000 in the O.C., the risk of dying from this virus is 28/2,900,000 or 0.00001. 

From these calculated risks in either SDC or in the O.C., it seems to me that those in charge have lost all common sense!

During this Wuhan coronavirus turmoil, who gets to decide what the word, “essential” denotes? Does “essential” mean the same thing to a myriad of different people? If a head of a family makes his living selling suits and ties, is his job essential to him and his family? Hmmm! If he doesn’t work then his family doesn’t eat. Ergo his job is certainly pretty essential to him, and it is especially essential to his three kids! More and more it seems that the governors of states are the ones that think that they are the only ones who can make this determination. When asked about his diktat concerning the limitations on the rights of individuals . . . and whether they were in opposition to the Bill of Rights, the Governor of New Jersey shrugged off that question, and replied something to the effect that he did not think about that! “Hold on there, Gov! Are you telling me that you are possibly going against basic things which are guaranteed by our Founding Fathers? Are you in essence saying , as another politician flippantly said in 2008, “that’s above my pay grade!”? If you are purposely skirting freedoms spelled out in the Bill of Rights, isn’t that against the oath you took when you were sworn in? Attorney General William Barr recently commented there is no “pandemic exception” to the Constitution, but it seems to me that some governors are indeed using this pandemic to do whatever they want . . . the Constitution be damned!
These so called “social isolation” diktats are hurting the poor way way more than those who are financially better off. As best I can tell there is no good way for Joe Schmo to sell suits and ties from his kitchen, whereas all six of the neighboring adults in my cul-de-sac are working from home! Tell me again how this is fair.

I am positive that I will get some negative feedback concerning my opinion on California’s Governor Newsom deciding to give up to 150,000 illegals in California $500 as part of a coronavirus relief effort. Potentially this relief fund will cost the state $75 million of taxpayer money. At this point California is the only state to set aside money, specifically coronavirus related money for illegals. Although I would never ever pretend that I could speak for Governor Newsom, I would think that his line of reasoning might go something like this:

“These illegals live and work in our state and compromise about 10% of the local work force. They pay their fair-share of state and local taxes, and are not eligible for any of the federal money that will be distributed to legal federal taxpayers. We, in California, accept them as equals here in our state. How are they to survive when they are laid off and thus unemployed? $500 won’t go far, but hopefully it will sustain many for a month or so. We owe it to them.”

Now for the proverbial kick in the groin…I have to agree with the governor’s decision on this matter. California does not have to do this, but it is the humane thing to do. My beef with most illegals is not that they are here, as I could imagine myself doing the same thing if I found myself in a situation south of the border where I could not feed my family. My beef with illegals is that I do not want them to be legal citizens, and especially I do not want them voting. Let’s be perfectly clear on this matter. I do not support the concept of sanctuary cities or a sanctuary state, but with the Wuhan coronavirus, we are all in this together.

While fuming that Pelosi and her band of low-lifes are now going to investigate President Trump fo his economic response to the coronavirus, my response was that “they” are truly  TWANLOC . . . an interesting acronym that I had never seen before a few months ago. Initially I did not know the meaning of “TWANLOC ”even though it is listed in the World’s largest and most authoritative dictionary database of abbreviations and acronyms. However, I did not feel bad as there are a zillion acronyms in this database. My guess is that none of you are familiar with this acronym either, but after reading this piece, you will now be using it in conversation just as I now am, as once one gets this acronym in his/her vernacular, it is surprising how often it is apropos. 
“TWANLOC,” means “Those Who Are No Longer Our Countrymen.” 
I had written but not published the following piece initially months ago, and now much of what I wrote back then is now passé, as the Democrat debates are a piece of non-history that everyone has forgotten.

Back then I wrote:
“With the debates “they” were all trying to get to the left of the ram or the ewe who was next to them on the debate stage. When I heard some of the bizarre ideas that “they” were vocalizing, I was saying “TWANLOC” instead of WTF!Take for instance, “free health care for illegals.” Perhaps, a nice pie-in-the-sky idea, but maybe we should focus first on providing good and timely medical care for our veterans. Plus when you think about this in a rational way, does it make any sense to offer yet another carrot to attract even more illegals? “They” think that this makes sense because giving free medical care to illegals is going to solidify the illegal’s Democratic vote . . . oops, I forgot that they say that illegals don’t vote! TWANLOC!How about “Medicare for all as a replacement for private health insurance?” Again another poorly thought out pie-in-the-sky idea that would be impossible to implement. “They” refuse to consider that taking the private health insurance away from millions upon millions of Americans, and replacing it with Medicare for All, is an unworkable idea, especially in view of the fact that Medicare is scheduled to go bankrupt in the near future! TWANLOC!Next on the twinkle-toe’s list is “reparations for slavery.” Again, who are these yo-yos that come up these ideas? This one doesn’t even deserve  a discussion! TWANLOC!
Personally, I am done accepting the potpourri of liberal ideas that “they” insist is what is best for me because “they know best.” I want to use plastic bags and plastic straws since everyone who has looked into the ocean’s pollution with plastics realizes that the vast, vast, vast polluters are in Asia. Unfortunately “they” do not consider these actual facts. I do not want to have to ride my bike to work or to the gym for that matter, because “they” have decided that my driving a car is bad. I do not want to spend mucho dineros on an electric car, because “they” want to essentially eliminate hydrocarbon usage. I want water to be used for growing food in the Central Valley of California instead of sending millions of gallons into the ocean because of some shrimp that “they” think is more important than the lives of the farmers.Who are “they?” TWANLOC!And months back, we had Nancy Pelosi and her band of caterwauling Democrat-Never-Trumpers, bemoaning the fact that the President killed a terrorist who had been responsible for the killing of hundreds and hundreds of American military men and women. TWANLOC!! “

Now back to the present day. Remember that “they” basically haven’t changed. Now we have Pelosi and Schiff planning to investigate (err . . . attack) President Trump because he is trying to figure out a way to defeat the  Wuhan-virus, and at the same time trying to save our economy from the depression which is right outside our front door. To anyone who will listen, most of the Democrats are playing politics with this Wuhan-disaster, and thus they are truly “TWANLOC!”

Trump Derangement Syndrome is still out there, and according to those with TDS,  . . . coronavirus pandemic be damned, Trump will pay!

About a month ago, on March 10, to be exact I went to the monthly breakfast of my fellow retirees. As fate would have it, I happened to sit across from one of the uber liberals in the group. (Actually, not my choice, as I was sitting there before he came in!) It didn’t take long before he was haranguing, unprovoked, against President Trump. After a bit, I politely said, “in this kind of terrible coronavirus situation, all Americans should unite as we are all on the same team. Politics should not play a part.” He didn’t get that i was referring to him!
After he took perhaps a single breath and he started again with the same CNN-like diatribe. I then informed him that probably right at that very minute, President Trump was meeting in the Oval Office with the heads of various Health Plans on behalf of the American people. (At that meeting the President convinced them to have any coronavirus testing be free of charge, and to eliminate co-pays for any visits, possibly related the present pandemic.) My across the table “friend,” let’s call him John, was not about to listen to anything good that our President was doing. I again repeated that reasonable Americans shouldn’t allow politics to play any role in this kind of a disaster. He still didn’t understand that I was referring pointedly to him!

Certainly, you must think that with all that President Trump is doing during this crisis, there should not be any TDS out there now. No, no, no! They are still out there. In fact in my ultra-liberal local paper, another diatribe, disguised as an editorial, a venomous one at that, against our President. I wrote my expected letter to the editor, but there is little chance that it will be published as I expressed surprise at the nastiness of the editorial, and commented that “I thought that all Americans would be on the same side in this time of crisis!”

However it is apparent to me that John, my local newspaper, as well as the TDSers just don’t get it, as they are not on the same side as the rest of us Americans!

The headline in today’s local paper: 

Worldwide Death Toll From Virus Tops 100,000

The sub-headline read: 

County deaths rise to 44, with 65 new cases reported

(Keep in mind that these types of headlines sell newspapers.)

In the body of the article the actual present statistics on the Wuhan virus (Covid-19) in San Diego County were given as follows:

Positive Covid tests / total tests for Covid = 1693/23,353  = 7.2% (only 7.2% of   those tested actually had the virus)

Patients hospitalized / positive tests = 374/1693 = 22% (less than one in four with a positive test had to be hospitalized)

Patients transferred to I.C.U / hospitalized patients = 140/374 = 37% (only a little over one in three hospitalized patients were sick enough that they needed to be transferred to ICU)

Covid deaths/ I.C.U. Covid patients = 44/140 = 31% (assuming that most of those that die are already in ICUs, one in three of the sickest ICU patients do not leave the hospital)

In addition in the article it was stated that half of these deaths were seniors living in congregate facilities (housing in which each individual has private living quarters, but shares other facilities.)

I then looked up the following:

Population of San Diego County = 3,100,000

I then calculated the following:

Your present chance of dying of Covid-19 in 

      San Diego County = 44/3,100,000 = 0.0014% !

Would we in San Diego feel the same angst about the Wuhan virus if instead the headline read: 

“Your chance of dying from the coronavirus in San Diego County is only 0.0014%”

Or what if the headline read: 

“If you do not live in a congregate facility, your chance of dying from Covid-19    in San Diego is 0.0007%”

(Keep in mind that these types of headlines do not sell papers!)

If I were now laid off and now unemployed and read either of the latter two headlines as well as the above statistics, I would probably say, “Are we overreacting?”

Hmmm! I wonder!

My son is a good chess player. Believe it or not, I taught him how to play about thirty years ago. It took him about a year until he then beat me, and I haven’t beat him since. I suppose that I could fabricate a reason as to why he consistently beats me, but the bottom line is that he is able to recognize patterns and he can plan ahead. 

Right now I am reading Range by David Epstein, and in chapter 1, he is talking about Susan Polgar, a champion chess player, who at a very early age was practicing the end-game and some opening-traps. I guess that this means that in chess neither the end of the game nor the beginning of game just happen . . . often there is a plan. Imagine that – a plan!

Which leads me to the gist of this piece. What is the plan for getting us out of this coronavirus lock-down, shut-down, isolation mess in which we are presently mired in. Someone recently told me that he thought Gov. Newsom was doing a good job with this virus situation here in California. When I politely  asked, “How does he plan to get us out of this lockdown?”, he merely shrugged his shoulders. At present I think that it is pretty reasonable to say that those who have come up with these continue-to-isolate and stay-at-home plans have never played serious chess, because I am not seeing an ‘end-game’ plan. For them, I have a few simple questions: When are we going to be able to walk in our neighborhood parks? When are surfers going to be able to go back in the ocean? (BTW, I have never seen a dedicated surfer within six feet of another surfer!) When am I going to be able to go outside without wearing a face-mask? – a mask that were told was of no benefit up to a few weeks ago. When am I actually going to be able to go to a restaurant or a movie, or to my gym? Church . . . when? I could go on and on, but you get the idea. 

Is there a plan? If so, what is the plan? Is there an end-game plan?

The one big obvious problem here is whenever someone, whoever that may be, decides to back off on these semi-totalitarian dictums, the number of cases is going to go up. You can take that to the bank! . . . err, the banks aren’t open, so maybe you can take it to the ATM . . . that is, if you wear gloves!

Be that as it may . . . The number of cases is going to go up! Then what?

The best analogy I can think of is the baseball player standing in the batter’s box and the pitch appears to be coming directly at him. Is it a curve? Will it go back to where it should go, over the plate. Does the batter have the kahunas to stand in there and wait for the ball to curve over the plate? Imagine that this batter is the person deciding what to do when the number of cases start to go back up. Will he stand firm or will he bail, and reinstate the stay-at-home, etcetera policies? In other words does he have and will he stick to an end-game strategy?

Dr Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci have been the dynamic-duo of medical advisers to President Trump during this Wuhan virus pandemic. They have been the purveyors of bad news since practically day one, and I have had no reason to doubt their expertise, that is until just recently. 

From the beginning the world was somewhat mystified by how poorly the Wuhan virus patients did in Italy. Mortality rates in Italy were much worse than any place else . . . but why? Yes, the population in Italy was an older population, but Japan has the oldest population in the world, and the Wuhan virus patients in Japan were not doing as poorly as the Italians. Why ? Social distancing was late in coming to Italy, and certainly this could have played a role in the spread of the virus in Italy, but why would that affect the mortality statistics there? It wouldn’t. The large number of Chinese transplants in and around Milan in conjunction with the Chinese New Year, most likely played a pivotal role in the very large overwhelming initial surge in that area, but again this should not have affected the mortality stats. 

Well it turns out that the mortality stats in Italy were influenced by the way these stats were collected. For instance, if someone had a heart attack and coincidentally also tested positive for Covid-19, aka the Wuhan virus, this death was attributed to the virus. Likewise, if someone on death’s door with Stage 4 cancer, was in the hospital for weeks, and then at death was found to have Covid-19 . . . you guessed it, the death was again attributed to the virus. 

Certainly this could not be the case in the U.S., could it? Without a doubt, we can keep more reliable stat than those Italians. I certainly thought so until earlier this week Gov. Cuomo of New York made an off-hand comment that other diseases in New York appeared to have miraculously stopped existing. Hallelujah! Perhaps a miracle! Could it be that in New York the reason that people seemingly stopped having strokes and heart attacks, etc was because they were testing positive for Covid-19, and so their deaths were then attributed to the virus? After all people in New York do die of things other than the Wuhan virus. In fact thousands of people die in New York every day, and have done so long before the Wuhan Covid-19 virus existed. Also, coincidentally CDC-pneumonia deaths have been “far lower” than normal. This sounds very much like the “disappearance” of another disease, just like in New York City and New York State.

Interestingly on the day following Gov. Cuomo’s innocent remark,  Dr. Birx admitted that some of the deaths attributed to Covid-19 were possibly due to something else, and Covid-19 was an innocent bystander of sorts. She said, “We have taken a very liberal  approach to mortality.”
“Whoa,” Deborah !! Have we wrecked our economy because of someone(s) “liberal approach to mortality?”

Likewise it is turning out that the predictions of Dire Straits, not that pop-group, but death due to that same virus have been vastly over-stated. Somehow the models used to predict the nationwide deaths due to the virus have been off . . . and off not just by a little bit!. A week or two ago we were told the models were predicting 100,000 – 200,000 deaths in the U.S because of this virus, even with social distancing measures taken into account. Now the models are predicting 60,000 deaths by August. 

This virus is bad news . . . really bad news. Yes, people, many people are dying because of it, but is it possible that we have over-hyped its significance?

I want it clearly understood that I am not suggesting that either of the dynamic duo has been less than honest with the American public, but if I had lost my job because the model was mistaken, I would not be happy!

Pepe is a very pleasant young homeless man that I occasionally see in my neighborhood, usually very near the doughnut shop that I visit probably too often . . . says my belt! He would have graduated high school in 2012, but he never actually graduated. When I asked him why he doesn’t get his G.E.D, he said, “No need, as the U.S. is not going to be here for long.” I have no idea what he meant by this, but to my way of thinking this kind of thought process is not normal. I do not think that he is on drugs, and can only think that his bizarre ideas about the future represent some sort of paranoia.

Now keep in mind that even though Pepe never graduated from high school, he appears to be pretty smart. Every time I approach him, he is always either reading paperbacks or reading something on an iPhone. When asked, he tells me what his present book is about, and that he gets his books from the library. These days it is winter, and even though it is San Diego, when I go out at around six in the morning, the temperature is often in the mid-forties, and very occasionally in the high thirties. Without question being homeless is no fun in a place like Chicago where it gets really really cold, but it cannot be pleasant sleeping outside when it’s 45 degrees. I feel bad for Pepe, but when I mentioned that maybe he could get into the program down at Father Joe’s, he wasn’t interested. I again mentioned that he could get his G.E.D. down there, and in the future the G.E.D. might real come in handy. His response, “Why would I need to do that if we are not going to be around that long?”

For years I have avoided commenting on the steadily increasing problem of the homeless in California, and more significantly, to me, in San Diego where I live. I have not commented as I do not have the answer to this problem. 

However, a few months ago, I received a mailer from Scott Sherman, a termed out councilman who was now running for mayor His potential solutions seemed pretty reasonable.

He started out by saying, “In the seven years I’ve been on the City Council we’ve increased homeless spending from $18 million to $102 million for this present year – it’s not working. Compassion without consequences is enabling, and we have people suffering from mental illness or drug addition living on the street. They need our help.” He goes on from there with specific points.

He certainly seems right concerning the obvious failure of our present predominately Democrat City Council’s idea of throwing more and more money at the problem without getting any results in return.

As best I can tell, Pepe is not breaking any laws by sleeping at night in the sheltered area outside the front of the library. However, I feel bad for him, and hoped that Mayor Sherman could do something in the future to change the steadily increasing trend of homelessness in San Diego.

Unfortunately there will be no Mayor Sherman, as he lost, and consequently I see further increases in spending for the homeless in years to come!

What does it take to be a good leader? First off, I think that you have to stick up for those that are under your wing, so to speak. Also it is tantamount that a good leader have the best interests of those depending on him foremost in his mind. Should we call Capt. Brett Crozier, the ex-commander of the air-craft carrier, Theodore Roosevelt, a good leader? Certainly he did break protocol by distributing a memo about the outbreak of the coronavirus on his ship. But why did he do that? To my way of thinking, he did it because he was looking out for those on his ship . . . not his own interest, but the well being of those under his command. He knew that he was going to get his ass chewed, and perhaps lose him command, but he went off the high dive anyway. Hooray for him!

What else does it take to be a good leader? To me, a good leader needs to listen to those who have expertise in areas where he doesn’t. Let’s say that a leader does not have experience in the military, then a good leader will listen to those who have that experience. He may not always agree with what a military-man says, but he will listen. The ultimate decisions will be his. As Harry Truman’s said, “The buck stops here!”

But finally a good leader must be decisive. He cannot pity-pat around. Review the facts. Consider the options, and then act DECISIVELY, as those who are depending on your decision want a good leader to be decisive. Will a good leader always be right? Hell no!

(For those of you who often read what I write, you know what’s coming!)

With this coronavirus pandemic, President Trump is looking out for the health of all Americans, with the emphasis on ALL. He is constantly seeking the advice of those who are the medical experts, and thus far, he is following their advice. Lastly he is. decisive. President Trump May be accused of a lot of things, but indecisiveness is not one of those things.

Luckily, in this time of dramatic turmoil, America is presently blessed with a very good leader – Donald Trump