http;//www.Californiacontrarian.com

Someone, who had played and coached baseball, once told me that he could pretty much predict which of those good players in the minor leagues would be able to hit major league pitching. 

“Many of these young minor league players can hit a fastball, and so a lot of them just sit on a fastball, because they cannot hit a curveball. In order to hit well in the big leagues, you need to be able to hit a major league curve, and this requires two basic things. 

“First, within nanoseconds, good hitters can pick up the different spin on the curveball as it leaves the pitcher’s hand. Not everyone can recognize that difference in the spin quick enough, and they most likely will never be a good hitter as they will be fed a diet of curveballs which they cannot recognize and therefore cannot hit.

“The second important piece of being able to hit a curveball is something that probably cannot be taught. As some of you may not be aware, the curve ball starts coming directly at the batter, before it changes direction and “curves” over the plate. In order to be able to hit a curveball, not only must a good hitter recognize the spin . . . but he must have the fortitude stand his ground. 

If a hitter bails out when the ball is coming directly at him, even if he knows that it’s a curveball, no way will he be successful. 

“Good hitters have to stand their ground. Good hitters do not back away when the going starts to get tough (when the ball is coming right at them). . . good hitters know what’s coming, and they do not back off.”

I am not a big baseball fan, so what’s all this talk about baseball? Well it seems to me that there is a similarity between a good hitter standing firm in the batter’s box when he know that a curve ball is coming, and a good governor standing firm when he knows things are starting to look bad. If someone’s loosens his tight fisted grip on the economy, he should certainly know that there will be more Covid cases. If there had been no spike in cases when the businesses were opened, then one might ask why the businesses had been closed in the first place! I asked my four year old granddaughter what would happened when the playgrounds were eventually opened up. She responded that more kids would hurt themselves – falling off the swings, falling down when they finished sliding down the slide. 

So what’s the difference? When one thing happens, another can be predicted to follow.

Some insurance companies have given rebates because less automobile use has led to less accidents. These rebates will not continue when more people are out driving again. Why? Because it will be inevitable that there will be more accidents. Likewise when the economy starts to open up, there will inevitably be more Covid cases. 

The problem here in California is that the Governor should have recognized the curveball (he opened up the economy, and should have anticipated an increase in coronavirus cases), but instead of standing staunch in the batter’s box, he bailed when the pitch was headed for him (cases going up as would be expected, and now he reinstitutes prior lockdowns) 

The aforementioned baseball coach would never have predicted that our governor would ever make it as a reliable major leaguer! (He panicked and bailed when he could have stood pat when things got tough.)

7/15/20

One of the things that I seem to be hearing a lot goes something like this:

“All we have to do is hunker down, socially isolate ourselves, wear masks, and just wait for the vaccine.”

What I am not hearing goes something like this:

“How long until the vaccine is available? Will there be enough vaccine for everybody? If there is not enough for everybody, who gets priority? Will the coronavirus mutate so that a different vaccine will be needed as time goes on ?”

As I have mentioned before, developing herd immunity naturally is the natural other way for the populace to become protected against this virus. Whenever this potential approach comes up, the response from various infectious disease experts goes something like this:

“For one thing, scientists don’t yet know whether a cured COVID-19 patient will be immune from the virus for an extended period,” said Dr. Waleed Javaid, director of infection prevention and control at Mount Sinai Downtown in New York City.

“It’s also not yet known whether the COVID-19 coronavirus will be able to mutate in ways that get around a person’s immunity,” he added.

From my perspective the key phrase in these kinds of statements from the experts is “not yet known”/ “don’t yet know.” 

For the most part what they do not say goes something like this:

“If this virus behaves similarly to the way multiple viruses have behaved in the past, there is a high likelihood that those who have been infected with this virus will from then on have immunity to that same virus.”

The other thing that I am not hearing from the experts goes something like this:

“Just as getting this infection does not provide 100% protection from getting this virus again in the future, getting the vaccine may also not provide 100% protection from getting this virus in the future. We just don’t know!”

Hmmm.

Apparently the news is in . . . drumroll, please!

Kanye West is running for President . . . err, at least we think that he is running, as he said that he is”taking off the red hat,” signifying that he is no longer supporting Trump, but rather is focusing on his own candidacy. At this point he has not filed any official paperwork.

For those of you who don’t know who Kanye is, he is a mega-rapper, and an avowed conservative. Up until last week, he had been a big Trump supporter.

What happened and why?

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

First of all he is against many things that the liberal Democrats stand for. He is disgusted with the fact that the Democrats are again taking African Americans for granted. In fact Joe Biden said that if an African American did not vote for him that he really wasn’t black! Kanye West expressed his displeasure with this obvious racist comment.

What’s up with Mr. West?

Up until about a week or so ago both he and his wife of six plus years, Kim Kardashian were big Trump boosters. (As you may remember Ms. Kardashian

helped persuade the President to commute Alice Marie Johnson’s life sentence for nonviolent offenses in 2018. FYI, Alice Marie Johnson is black.)

Are Kanye West and his wife planning on stabbing Mr. Trump in the back?

Let’s think this over.

Back in January of this year it was estimated that President Trump could get about 20% of the black vote, which would have been up considerably from 2016. This was because of the dramatic economic improvement that blacks were having under the Trump presidency. Again that was in January before all of upheaval with the coronavirus and BLM. At this point I would guess that Mr. Trump would be lucky to get 5% of the black vote, as either blacks will vote for Biden or they won’t vote. Of course thing can change . . . who can predict anything these days!?

With this in mind, to me there is only one logical reason for Kanye West to consider running for President, and that is to siphon black votes away from Biden. Again from my viewpoint there is no way that Biden can win in November without the black vote. How many votes are we potentially talking about?

Q: How many African Americans are there in the U.S.?

A: According to the 2010 census, there were 37,144,530 non-Hispanic blacks, which comprised 12.1% of the U.S. population. This number increased to 42 million according to the 2010 United States Census, when including Multiracial African Americans, making up 14% of the total U.S. population.

First some facts:

When Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012, black voter turnout increased to 64+% in both of these elections, compared to 60% in 2004 and 56% in 2000.

In 2008 and 2016 Obama won 96% and 93% of the black vote.

So for the sake of discussion, let’s assume that 60% of the African Americans(AA) vote in the 2020 election (similar to 2004), and let’s assume that 90% will vote for Biden. (37 millionAA x 60% voter turnout x 90% for Biden). That amounts to almost 20 million votes! If Kanye West runs, let’s conservatively assume that he will get 10% of the black vote. . . that would be 2 million less votes for “if you don’t vote for me, you ain’t lack” Joe Biden. (If Mr. West runs, he could feasibly get 25% of the AA votes . . . that would be 5 million less votes for Biden.

Actually any votes that Mr. West hijacked from Biden, would be good for Donald Trump. Maybe we should organize a get together, with masks, of course, so that we can start making “Kanye West for President” posters!

Whadda ya think?

7/12/20

The main news on July 4th from Washington came from Washington D.C. where BLM “protestors” stomped on the American flag before setting in on fire. These “peaceful protestors” then blocked traffic leading out of the city going into Virginia. Do the words, “peaceful protests” have another meaning in D.C.? 

On the following day, the headline in my local paper read : “Coronavirus Casts Pall Over Fourth Festivities.” I did not see any news in that same local paper reporting that “BLM Protests Cast Pall Over Fourth Festivities!” . . . Hmmm! (I hope that all of those thousands from Virginia who were delayed by these “protests” vote for the candidate who is “anti-BLM.”)

There was, however, some interesting news out of the “other Washington” – the State of Washington, where a man was brought to the downtown jail in Spokane by ambulance on July 1, after Spokane Regional Health District Health Officer Dr. Bob Lutz determined the man was a threat to the community. What was this man’s offense? Apparently he “refused to cooperate with voluntary isolation instructions.” (I guess the word, “voluntary” must have a different meaning in Washington State!) Yikes!

Other interesting news out of that “other Washington” is from the University of Washington in Seattle. (Yes, that same Seattle that allowed BLAZ to exist for about a week.)

The school said on July 3rd that it had confirmed that a total of 93 students, including 89 fraternity residents, tested positive for the corona virus. As of 7/5 that number is up to 117, in 15 fraternity houses. School officials said they are still collecting and verifying the status of cases — and that there may be more than what has been reported. (“there may be more than what has been reported!!!” . . . do these school officials think that these frat parties are limited to only those who live in frat houses?)

Oops, and this in a state with “mandatory mask wearing when outside!” (I guess the word, “mandatory” must have a different meaning in Washington State!)

BTW: Is it possible that these college students knew that they were exposing themselves to Covid-19? Could they have done it on purpose? 

(FYI: A  purposeful exposure to the coronavirus by college students sounds eerily similar to what the college students chose to do in my new book.)

Have you heard about the college students in Alabama who are having “Covid parties,” and the first person to prove that he/she got the Covid virus won the pool money! I can hear the rumblings about those Alabamians not being the sharpest knives in the drawer! (Even though I do not know anyone from Alabama, I did drive through Tuscaloosa, Alabama once.)

But before rushing to judgement, should we think about what they are actually doing? It seems to me that they are making a trade – probably getting a virus that has a very low risk for their age group in exchange for a chance to act like normal college students . . . Go to parties. Go to football games. Go to class, etc., as once they are infected the chance of them getting the virus again is minuscule.

On second thought maybe they are sharper knives than we are giving them credit for!

Lately California is all a-buzz that the coronavirus  infections are “surging!” Of course, this must be a terrible thing . . . even though the death toll with this “surge” is nothing like it was back in April. In fact the present daily and weekly mortality is quite low. Could that be because now much younger people are getting infected? If that is indeed the case, could it be that a lot of these recent infections are in fact a good thing? 

Snicker, if you must, but there is such a thing as “herd immunity,” which in essence means that as a certain percent of the population gets this viral infection, then the remainder of the herd will be relatively protected. In the beginning of this pandemic, it was estimated that seventy percent of the population needed to be infected to achieve herd immunity, however recently some have estimated that this number may be closer to fifty percent.

Back to these silly college students. If an effective vaccine is developed, these low-risk college students will be at the very end of the priority line, so maybe their “Covid parties” are not so dumb after all!

(FYI: in my upcoming book, an entire town decides that having “Covid parties” is the only way out of their lockdown and its consequent economic debacle!)

7/10/20

“Up in the mornin’ and out to school

The teacher is teachin’ the Golden Rule

American history and practical math

You study’ em hard and hopin’ to pass

Workin’ your fingers right down to the bone

And the guy behind you won’t leave you alone”

Q: Who among us doesn’t recognize Chuck Berry’s “School Days” from March,  1957? 

A: Potentially anyone less than sixty may not be familiar with this song!

Back when I was young, “black,” or “white” didn’t much matter to me and as far as music was concerned … Chuck Berry, Little Richard … BSM (black singers matter). I liked them all. 

However this is not about Chuck Berry, but rather it is about sending children back to school come September. President Trump just came out and said that schools should reopen in September, and predictably those on the left are going to oppose whatever he says. It sounded like the President was arguing that going back to school was necessary from from an economic viewpoint.

Let’s look at “kids going back to school?” from this economic perspective first. 

Many many families, both families with two parents and both working, and single-parent families need to have their children looked after while they are at work . . . or else they cannot go to work. How many children are we talking about?

About 56.6 million students will attend elementary, middle, and high schools across the United States:

• 50.8 million students in public schools
• 5.8 million students in private schools

Of the 50.8 million public school students:

• 1.4 million will attend prekindergarten
• 3.7 million will attend kindergarten
• 35.5 million will attend prekindergarten to grade 8
• 15.3 million will attend grades 9 to 12

If we assume that those of high school age do not need day care in order for the parent(s) to work, that still leaves about 35+ million school aged kids that need some kind of day care, assuming that the parents are not going to leave them home alone during the day or assuming that grandma will not be able to take care of them.

Of course the more affluent can afford to hire someone to watch their kids, but those are often the same more affluent that can often work from home. Those more affluent are not the ones that will be hurt the most if kids do not go back to school. Going hybrid? I view this as being able to say that you are doing something, when in essence you do not have a clue as to what to do!  (“Sorry, Mr. Boss, I can’t come in tomorrow or on any even numbered day this month because my kids only go to school on the odd numbered days, and thus are home on the even numbered days!”)

If BLM really cared about black kids, they would be all over this one. Which kids will suffer the most if they are not in school? Black kids!

When you look at “should kids going back to school” from a purely economic perspective, it seems to be a clear “yes, send the kids back to school!”

The second and probably even more important reason that kids should go back to school is that kids need to act like kids! Keeping them in pseudo-solitary confinement in the house is counter-productive to them maturing normally. They need friends. They need social interaction. They need to play. They need to run around. They need to learn how to interact with other kids. As I am sure that many of you have read, child abuse is up, as is spousal abuse. Alcoholism . . . up; drug use . . . up, perhaps partially due to the fact that these borderline individuals are now trapped inside all day with their kids. For their own good, send the kids to school!

The third reason to send kids back to school is to educate them. Let us not forget that the purpose of schools is to educate the children. Is it possible to educate kids at home? In some circumstances obviously it is not only possible but potentially better if the home-school teacher is both qualified and motivated. Personally I am dubious that home-schooled kids are as socially adept as those kids that are able to escape from under their own roof … but that is another topic for another day. A lot of children, especially those from poorer families need to get an education if there is to be any hope for them. They can either stay home and stay poor or they can go to school and have a chance to improve their lot in life.

The final reason that kids should go back to school is a negative one – there is no proven health reason to keep them home. In many European countries, in Australia, and in New Zealand kids have safely been going back to school fo months. At this point it is questionable whether or not the children spread the virus to adults (i.e. teachers) or even whether or not it matters when they spread it to each other. Will someone suffer because a child brought the virus home to grandma? Inevitably, yes, and that will be a sad situation, but not a reason to keep the 35+ million from going to school.

In the end – hard as it may seem to some – I agree with President Trump

On 7/6/20 I read an article in the NYT about the increasing gun violence in Chicago, and a lot of what follows is from that article. This article was basically detailing the innocent children who are unintended casualties in this mayhem. Since 6/20 there have been nine children, less than eighteen years old, killed by guns on the west and the south side of Chicago, and this does not include the total stats for this past July Fourth weekend. So far at least two youths were shot and killed on July Fourth . . . a fourteen year old boy on the South side and a seven year old girl on the West side.

Within the last two weeks, Sincere Gaston, 20 months old was shot and killed while he sat in his car seat in the backseat of his mother’s car – she was driving home from a laundromat.

Also James Mekhi, 3y/o, was shot and killed as he sat in the backseat of his step father’s car. (In an accompanying picture of the location of where he was killed was a sign for West Suburban Hospital . . . my wife was born at this hospital, and it is located less than a mile from where I went to grade school.

“The Windy City is becoming the Bloody City,” said the Rev. Michael L. Pfleger of Saint Sabina Church, calling it the worst period in the 45 years he has worked on social issues. “I have never seen the despair, hopelessness and anger all mixed together at the level it is right now.”

Okay, I think all would agree that this situation is a disaster. What to do? Less law enforcement? More law enforcement?

More ?

The police too are feeling the strain as they try to confront both the violence in the city and the pandemic. “All of the people and organizations that we usually depend on to respond to homicide and violent crime are overburdened right now,” said Thomas Abt, a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice.

Less?

Distrust of the police is also a contributing factor as many residents of the hardest-hit neighborhoods feel reluctant to call on law enforcement

People who have lost trust in the police are more prone to settle scores on their own, experts said. “The lack of trust, the lack of confidence in police and the lack of willingness to use police, I think is going to have a broader effect,” said Mr. Abt.

To me it seems that no one knows what to do. Certainly the approach of the politicians in Chicago, to put it politely, is to ignore the problem . . . at least that’s what it seems like. Perhaps, they ignore it because there is no answer!

So what is the answer for the black families that live on the Westside and/or the Southside of Chicago? They are trapped in a dysfunctional city. As of July second there have been 336 murders in the city. You can be killed driving from the laundromat or attending a block party. Recently one of the children who was murdered, had the audacity to be sitting in her living room watching TV!

To my way of thinking, there is only one thing to do . . . Move out of Chicago. 

Leave! Get out!

But where? . . . Anywhere, but not to another big city.

If “Black Lives Matter” really wanted to help Black lives, they would expedite and facilitate a Chicago exodus.

Update: In Chicago this past weekend 69 people were shot and 16 were killed. I am waiting for a comment on this from BLM, or the Illinois Democrats.

Yesterday I mocked the response of CNN and the NYT to President  Trump’s speech at Mount Rushmore. They both called it “divisive.” In all honesty, I had admitted that I had not listened to that speech. After being chastised by hundreds or maybe even a thousand readers over the last twenty-four hours, I decided to possibly recant, and perhaps reassess my opinion. I decided that in fairness, I would watch the speech on You-Tube. I did just that, and now I am going to give an honest informed opinion of that 42:25. A recant ?

First of all, it was not a typical Trump campaign speech. He did not mention Joe Biden once! He talked for at least five minutes about each of the four presidents enshrined on the mount just above his head. This was not “rah-rah,” but very complementary toward each of the four. While I was listening to stuff about Lincoln and Roosevelt, I could not understand why CNN/NYT called the speech “divisive.”

He said that attacks on liberty must be stopped, and that he was deploying federal law enforcement to protect our history and to arrest the rioters that were defacing statues. Now here I can understand why this might be viewed as divisive by “left-wing nut jobs!”

President Trump also said, “the American family is the bedrock of American society.” Divisive? . . . only if you are on the side of BLM, that wants to destroy the family.

He also said, “We will stand proud and will only kneel to Almighty God.” Divisive ? . . . only if you are a big fan of Colin K. and the NFL. (BTW, Nike is losing a lot of money this year. Hooray!)

He went through a litany of great American accomplishments and famous Americans from Bob Hope to Louie Armstrong and Ella Fitzgerald. Divisive ? . . . I dare CCN/NYT to show me anybody who does not like Hope or Satchmo Armstrong.

He closed by asking all Americans to step-up and defend the integrity of our country. Now, can anyone explain how defending the integrity of our country can be divisive? 

An his final line . . .  “God Bless America!” There are only two groups who would call this last line “divisive” . . . our enemies or the devil! 

To which group does CNN and the NYT  belong?

A recant? . . . Hardly!

Oops,I did it again … unintentionally, but guilty as charged! It happened at my gym . . . again. For years the TV that is situated directly in front of the exercycles has been tuned to Fox News. As I got situated on my bike – wiping it down with Purell, adjusting the seat using Purell again, and getting ipod earbuds positioned correctly, a commercial was on the TV screen. I started pedaling, and at about two minutes in, I noticed, much to my dismay that the TV directly in front of me was tuned to  . . . CNN!

At that point I had a decision to make. Either get off that exercycle, move to another piece of exercise equipment, and go through all of the Purell rigamarole again . . . or continue as is, and do my best to control the nausea. “Forgive me, Father, for I have sinned.” “Mea Culpa!”

Although thankfully I could not hear any of the drivel that was being spewed out by the announcer, across the bottom of the screen the word, “divisive” was used repeatedly in association with “Trump’s speech at Mount Rushmore.” Because this was CNN, I suspected that it probably was a good speech.

Later today while looking at some things on the internet, I noticed that the NYT had referred to that same speech as, “dark and divisive!” ( I guess “divisive,” must have been the leftist word of the day. If today wasn’t a holiday, I’m sure that “stretched-face” would have used that same word of the day.) After I read that the NYT was vociferously not happy with the speech, I knew that it must have been good!

Next I read an article by Roger Kimball about that same speech. The headline of that article was the following:

“Looking back on the 2020 election, historians will say the Mt. Rushmore speech was the moment that Donald Trump won reelection.”

Damn, I wished that I had watched that speech!

At least my suspicions about the speech were confirmed . . . “if both CNN and the NYT both disliked it, it must have been very good!”

Recently a friend of mine was talking about moving to upper Manhattan to be close to her son. She was concerned that as she getting older, she might need a local support system if she became ill. She was fearful about facing the inevitability that the health of her and husband would go downhill, and she didn’t want to face that inevitability alone. Since her children had moved away many years ago, and would not be ever moving back, she figured that she should go to where they were.

Well the good news for her is that this might be the ideal time to move to Manhattan. After all, who else in their right mind would want to move to New York City now? In fact the data from this last quarter are hinting at a NYC exodus, and the more deBlasio is in the news, the more crowded the highways that lead out of NYC will be.

The following is from The Daily Caller:

“Manhattan real-estate sales have seen the largest decline in 30 years as apprehension about coronavirus continues and buyer preferences shift, the New York Times reported.

A report from the brokerage Douglas Elliman reported by the New York Times found that the number of closed sales in the second quarter decreased by 54% compared to the same quarter in 2019. The cost of buying has also plunged 17.7% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

There were also only 1,147 sales in the quarter, marking the lowest number on record according to a study by Compass.

Most indicative of the market’s pulse is the number of apartment contracts signed, which decreased 76% in June when compared to the same time in 2019. Brokers say the rental market will face the most immediate pressure since renters can leave the city easily, and few renters are moving in, according to CNBC.”

Don’t get me wrong, I have been to NYC three or four times in the past (pre deBlasio), and loved it. However, as I have told my friend, “No way am I ever going back! That train has left the station.”