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Dear Governor Newsom,                                               November 12,2020

As you are fully aware we are going to be dropping down to a lower tier in our county … meaning that because of some arbitrary criteria that you and Dr. Ghaly have formulated, the lives of a myriad of people are now headed further into “disaster mode.” Now this is going to happen not only to thousands of people here in San Diego County, but also to many many more throughout the state.

As an aside, are either you or Dr. Ghaly going to be going on unemployment because of your arbitrary tiers? I think not. Do you ever consider how you are effecting the lives of small business owners, especially those in the food service arena? I think not. These people have already lost a lot, or perhaps even all, of their savings trying to keep their businesses alive while you are comfortably rich, living in your gated community. 

This latest lockdown imposition will be the final straw for many. Their businesses will die. Their employees will no longer be employed. Do you realize what you have done to these hard working people? I think not.

Why are you ruining their lives?

I think the reasoning goes something like this: Because the number of Covid cases is increasing, inevitably the number of hospitalizations will go up, and our hospitals will be overwhelmed. (Much as you do not want to admit it, “overwhelmed” is conjecture. Will hospitalizations go up? . . . but overwhelmed?)

If in a few weeks this overwhelming of our ICUs does not occur, will you be willing to reimburse these small business owners for their losses . . . from your own fortune? I think not!

I do not wish ill will on anybody, but if there is a God, your recall will be successful.

Sincerely,

The California Contrarian

Am I depressed ?
Is the Pope a Catholic?

Does the sun rise in the East?

Obviously the answer to all three questions is “yes.”

Whereas, I missed on my prediction of the outcome of thePresidential election… at least as it presently stands, (FYI: I picked Trump to win.),I did correctly predict the outcome of the closest Senate races – as I predicted that the Republicans would win two of four, and they did win No. Carolina and Iowa, losing Arizona and Michigan.

 I am going to try to stay objective during the upcoming weeks as the various suits go through the process of adjudication. I am fairly sure that everyone knows what I hope happens in the courts, but I am going to try to avoid non-verifiable rumors. 

Looking at the good side . . . If the Biden victory holds up, at least I will have plenty to write about during the next four years.

Because there is no way to post responses on this website, I am now going to be considering “guest submissions” on a trial basis. My Board of Directors, of which I am a member, will review any potential submissions before actually posting them. They will be held to the same high standards as now. Remember, no naughty words!

Can we learn anything from what is happening with the coronavirus in Europe?

I just saw an interesting chart that compares the present day hospitalization rates per 100,000 population in many many European countries, compared to the spring peak. In the spring many European countries got slammed hard, e.g. Spain and Italy, whereas other European countries had only a very small infection tally, with some in single digits, for example the Czech Republic (4 hospitalizations per 100,000 population), Bulgaria (6/100,000), Hungary 7/100,000), Latvia (2/100,000), Finland (4/100,000), Norway 6/100,000). 

What is interesting is that other than Norway, Finland, and Iceland (islands or practically islands), those countries that had a spring incidence of hospitalizations in single digits are now getting hit very hard. For example, in the Czech Republic the hospitalization rate now is 882% of what is was in the spring, in Bulgaria, 382% compared to the spring, in Slovakia, 285% compared to the spring, in Hungary, 249%.

Likewise those countries that had a higher incidence of hospitalizations in the spring now have a much lower percent. For example, Belgium, 43% now compared to the spring, France, 34%, Italy, 24%, Luxembourg, 15%.

Why ?

To me there are only a few possible explanations for this phenomena:

First in those countries with a high hospitalization rate in the spring, the most vulnerable died off in the spring and so now those being affected with the virus are the more resilient portion of the population, and thus now have a lower hospitalization rate.

Second, coincident with the high hospitalization rate in the spring, there was, in general, a higher incidence of infections in those countries, and consequently more individuals have achieved some measure of immunity.

Similarly if one looks at the reverse . . . low incidence in the spring with an overwhelming rate of hospitalizations now (Czech Republic or Bulgaria), the same question remains – Why?

Again to my way of thinking this is possibly due to the severity and the efficiency of lockdowns in the spring. For instance, if the Czech Republic was stringently locked in the spring, their most vulnerable would still be alive now, and thus susceptible to a severe infections. Likewise consequent to lockdowns in the spring, the Czech Republic would have very little immunity in the general population.

So back to the original question . . . Can our country, our state, or our county learn anything from what’s happening in Europe?

Perhaps the message should be . . . either pay the piper now or later, but in the end, every country, state or county will pay. Lockdowns can only delay the piper, not prevent him from collecting his due. Are you listening Governor Newsom?

I just read something that could be potentially be disastrous. If you are weak of heart, perhaps you should not read any further.

I am talking about a new mutated form of the coronavirus . . . in Denmark, of all places. Denmark has a population of 5.8 million people, but more important has a population of 17 million mink. These mink are on mink farms of which there are around one thousand in that country, and a mutated form of the coronavirus has been found in minks in Denmark. This is of big enough concern that there is a possibility that Denmark will order the culling of all of these mink. At this point apparently there has been spread of this mutant coronavirus from mink into humans, albeit only twelve cases.

What does this mean? At this point we do not know. 

Basically there are two possibilities . . . it could mean basically nothing, or . . . we could be on the verge of a second pandemic caused by a mutated Denmark mink coronavirus. This is a worrisome possibility if those who have immunity to Covid 19 because of a past infection are not immune to this Denmark mink virus. Also, even more worrisome is the possibility that a vaccine for Covid-19 will not work for this new mutated form. 

How worried should we be?

At this point flights are still coming to and going from Copenhagen to around the world, so apparently WHO is not concerned. However, rumor has it that early this a.m. Britain with just two hours notice suspended incoming flights from Denmark.

Hopefully this British concern over this Denmark mink virus will prove to be nothing.

FYI, I wear a mask in situations where I cannot social distance, for example in a store or in Costco. I do not wear one in situations where social distancing is not necessary, for example walking in my neighborhood or on the beach. I do not wear a mask in situations where social distancing is not an issue, for example when driving my car or when taking out the garbage. I wear a mask when the proprietor requests that I wear one, for example at the gym even though no one is within fifteen feet of me for longer than a second or two.

Suffice it to say, I am not convinced that masks are the end-all absolute answer, but for the sake of harmony I will wear one in situations where everyone else is wearing one . . . “when in Rome!” If I am not wearing a mask when I am out walking, and get taken to task by some Karen, I am ready with my response . . . “Karen, you of course know that wearing a mask is supposed to prevent me from spreading the virus to somebody else. Well, good news! I just got my Covid test back this morning, and I am negative. Thus, I have no virus to spread. Lucky you. Have a nice day.”

Seriously, is there any evidence that mask-wearing prevents the spread of infection? If there is, I am not aware of it. In the past few days I read two different articles on masks.

The first was in the Wall Street Journal by Joseph Ladapo M.D., an associate professor at UCLA’s School of Medicine. From his piece: “Several randomized trials of community or household masking have been completed. Most have shown that wearing a mask has little or no effect on respiratory virus transmission, according to a review published earlier this year in Emerging Infectious Diseases, a CDC Journal.”

Likewise, states with mask mandates had a 2% reduction in growth rates of Covid-19 compared to states without such mandates. Only a 2% difference implies that either people weren’t compliant, or that they do not make much of a difference.

Again from Dr. Ladapo, “Based on evidence around the world, it should be clear that masked mandates won’t extinguish the virus.”

Recently Senator Ron Paul M.D. tweeted:

To the scolds blaming ⁦@ realDonaldTrump infection on not wearing mask: the only published randomized clinical study of cloth masks shows 97% penetration of particles & higher infection rate than control. The discussion from that article, BMJ, 2015, says the following, concerning HCW (hospital workers):

“We have provided the first clinical efficacy data of cloth masks, which suggest HCWs should not use cloth masks as protection against respiratory infection. Cloth masks resulted in significantly higher rates of infection than medical masks, and also performed worse than the control arm. The controls were HCWs who observed standard practice, which involved mask use in the majority, albeit with lower compliance than in the intervention arms. The control HCWs also used medical masks more often than cloth masks. When we analysed all mask-wearers including controls, the higher risk of cloth masks was seen for laboratory-confirmed respiratory viral infection.”

On the other hand a physician on YouTube in Britain, Dr. John Campbell, thinks that mask wearing by an individual may decrease the inoculum that one receives from someone who has the virus. If this is true, it could mean that mask wearers are more likely to get a milder infection, and getting a milder infection would be a good thing. Again he is saying that mask-wearing does not prevent infection, but rather attenuates it.

Now that the election is over, it will be interesting to see if the compliance with mask wearing changes.

In the last twenty-four hours I have either heard or read a lot of things that imply that a lot of skullduggery may have occurred with voting and vote tabulation in multiple states. Now of course, I cannot verify if any of these “rumor/accusations” are verifiable. Perhaps they all are; perhaps none of them are.

Where to start? Here are a few:

In Wisconsin the “rumor” that there were more ballots cast than there are registered voters . . . and not just by a few, but rather by the thousands. Rumor or truth ?

In Michigan there were multiple ballots cast by people who were born prior to 1900. One vote was from someone born in 1850! Gee, I wonder who that guy voted for? These obvious dead people were sent ballot. The scuttlebutt is that this may have been done purposefully. 

Rumor or truth?

From Twitter: 

Michigan @USPS Whistleblower Details Directive From Superiors: Back-Date Late Mail-In-Ballots As Received November 3rd, 2020 So They Are Accepted “Separate them from standard letter mail so they can hand stamp them with YESTERDAY’S DATE & put them through.” . . . rumor or truth?

Pennsylvania is apparently accepting ballots with no postmark and no signature. Hmmm! Rumor or truth?

In Arizona: 

Rumor has it that voters in Trump districts were given Sharpies with which to fill in their ballots . . . but the readers do not recognize Sharpies!

Rumor or truth?

In Michigan:

A woman monitoring the ballot counting in Detroit has asserted that at least 130,000 ballots, all for Joe Biden, were brought to the center in three vehicles at 4 a.m. Hmmm!

Rumor or truth?

USPS did not comply with order to do ballot sweeps prior to the deadline. Rumor or truth?

US District Judge Emmet Sullivan told a lawyer for the US Postal Service that he was “not pleased” with the USPS after it failed to meet a deadline to sweep facilities in several states for undelivered ballots and immediately send them to election officials. This we know is true. However . . . The USPS says it conducted delayed last-minute sweeps but only found “around 12 or 13 ballots, which were sent on to the appropriate election authorities” Truth?

Whew! I’m betting that we have just begun and there will be many more of these rumors/accusations. Fasten your seatbelts!

Finally something has happened here in California that has already happened in some other states. No, this has nothing to do with the election, the result of which will probably not be known for days and maybe not for weeks.

Here I am referring to  a ruling by a  Sutter County Superior Court Judge in California. On 11/2/20 a Northern California judge tentatively ruled in favor of state Assemblymembers James Gallagher and Kevin Kiley regarding their lawsuit against Governor Gavin Newsom. The two Republicans are claiming the Democratic governor has abused his power during the COVID-19 pandemic. They have been arguing that the California Emergency Services Act does not provide for one-man rule.

Similar suits in other states have had similar results, namely that governors cannot unilaterally dictate, and dictate, and dictate ad-nauseam to the residents of their state on a never ending list of issues. I would guess that we will see more of these suits as the Constitution does not take a holiday for a pandemic, or a flood, or a hurricane, etc.

Here in California, in Sutter County Superior Court Judge Sarah Heckman ruled as unconstitutional Governor Newsom’s statewide vote-by-mail executive order. The directive required that all registered voters in California receive mail-in ballots to avoid having large numbers of people gathered at polling places. It also mandated one voting place per 10,000 residents be open from October 31st to November 2nd for at least 8 hours.

The details of this particular case are not particularly important as the voting has been completed, but rather it is the principle that is important, namely that Governor Newsom is not a monarch, and California is not a monarchy.

In addition, the judge’s tentative ruling places an injunction on any unilateral attempts by the Governor to make or change state law in the immediate future.

“This is a victory for separation of powers. The Governor has continued to create and change state law without public input and without the deliberative process provided by the Legislature,” said Kiley, one of the two Republican state Assemblymen who filed the suit against Governor Newsom. “The judicial branch again gave him the check that was needed and that the Constitution requires.”

Finally, with this ruling perhaps there will be some clarity of just how much King Newsom can dictate to his serfs here in California.

11/4/20

When will we learn the results of this Presidential election? It will probably be days or even weeks before the final tally is in. Undoubtedly there will be skulduggery in counting the votes in many states . . . which ballots are valid and which are fake? With the large number of mail-in ballots, the absentee ballots, the court decisions to extend deadlines, the comparing of voter’s signatures, and the number of dead people voting (other than in Chicago), there is going to be a substantial delay before all the legitimate votes are counted. (Remember, Hillary’s advice to Biden not to concede.)

Don’t be surprised if the Supreme Court has to get involved. (Thank God that the Court now has nine members.)

Are there any hints or shortcuts to tell who is likely to win before the fat-lady sings? The obvious answer is, “no,” however there is an indicator that can give a good reading before all of the votes are counted. That indicator is Florida. 

I have read the following multiple times:

“If Biden wins Florida, his chance of winning the presidency is 95%; whereas if Biden loses Florida, his chance of winning drops to <50%.”

Certainly there are multiple other battleground states in which the polls are too close to call at this point, but Florida appears to be a key state for each candidate, and more important South Florida appears to be a critical piece of the Florida puzzle. Why? Because South Florida (Miami-Dade County) is heavily Democrat. Hillary won that part of the state by >29% in 2016, and still lost Florida. However, this year there appears to be some Democrat angst concerning South Florida, because at this point, the turnout is relatively low. Young people are not getting out to vote there as anticipated. (FL: total Ds lead 95,130 so Rs again chopping that lead bit by bit. Ds led 96,400 going into election day 2016 when Trump won by 113,000.)

It is quite interesting that on Sunday, 11/1, President Trump held his final rally of five that day in Opa Locka, Florida. Where the hell is Opa Locka? Why hold a rally there? Well, Opa Locka is in Miami-Dade County. The rally started late at 11:47 pm, and lasted a little over an hour till 12:49 a.m. The Opa Locka Executive Airport was packed . . . at midnight for the rally.

At the Opa-locka Rally there were 14,254 signups – 23.9% of whom did not vote in 2016. Will these 2016 non-voters vote for Trump in 2020 or are they just there to enjoy the crowd? (You must make your own judgement on that. I have made mine.)

The latest CBS poll has Florida going for Trump, and the Democracy Institute State Polls has the following (per Breitbart):

FLORIDA

Trump 49%

Biden  45%

So the bottom line is that the vote tallies will not be finalized probably for weeks, however Florida could well be the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.

God bless Florida, and may God bless America.

I know that you are all anxiously waiting for my prediction for the upcoming election. In early to mid October, I felt that Biden was clearly going to be the winner, and felt that he would easily hold on.

Just over the last week or two some things have happened that I believe have influenced the independent voters. I do not think that all of the things I am going to detail below effected all independents the same. However, as I look back, I believed that some of these things could effect individual independent voters or more importantly groups of independent voters. 

The following are in no particular order:

Nuns in MAGA masks at Trump rally in Ohio; they were behind Trump and           were very enthusiastic for DJT.

Seals rescue American in Nigeria

Recent and ongoing Philadelphia riots

New Orleans police officer ambushed, shot in the face

Minnesota Dem. Governor and Dem. AG limiting Trump rally to 250;  (Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) said the              Trump campaign had to limit their rally to 250 people – hundreds,  maybe a thousand gathered in the adjacent parking lot)

Black women wanting better schools for their kids, and a recent Zoom  meeting with black pastors in which Trump vowed to help poorer children have “school choice.”

Biden’s almost pitiful attempt to coddle up to Florida’s Hispanic voters with some rap-like song. (Cubans in So. Florida are still reacting to Obama’s buddying up to Castro.)

Trump’s recent Peace Prize nominations 

Rappers Lil Wayne and Ice Cube both endorsing Trump

The Washington Examiner and the New York Post both endorsing Trump

The hectic pace of Trump the extremely enthusiastic rallies over the last few weeks, and especially the last few days . . .compared to the sad         almost sullen Biden rallies – no comparison.

Bobby Orr coming out for Trump in New Hampshire

Biden’s major debate faux pas when he said that he was going to end fracking

And finally, Trump coming down with Covid was a blessing in disguise.

Finally, my prediction:

Trump will win with at least 290 electoral votes. Biden could win the popular vote tally with a lot of basically useless Biden votes coming from the west coast (including California, and Wash/Ore), Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and basically all of New England. Despite the anticipated caterwauling from the Dems . . . “Like Hillary, Biden won the popular vote, he should be President” . . . tough, as the Electoral College is how the USA picks the winner.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot:

I am also predicting that the Republicans will hold on to the Senate with the Republicans taking two of the following four . . . Arizona, North Carolina,  Michigan, Iowa . . . on Trump’s coattails.

These days it seems that there is no room for disagreement. If one disagrees with the prevailing opinion, then he/she is vilified and slandered. There is no room for any discussion . . . “If you disagree with me, go to hell. You’re wrong! Shut up. No, there will not be any discussion. The matter has already been settled.”

The best example in recent years is that of “man made global warming.” One somewhat erudite discussion group that I belong to would not allow an anti- man made global warming speaker to present a different side to the “accepted science” of man made global warming. (“You’re wrong. We are right. Shut up. There is no need for any discussion on the topic.”)

With this Covid pandemic we are seeing a similar pattern : “We are right and you’re wrong. Shut up. End of discussion.” I do agree that some things, like social distancing, seem to be common sense. It would seem logical that the farther one stays away from other people, the less likely one is to get the infection from another person. However, where did the magical six feet come from? In Europe it is one meter, the equivalent of about three feet. Do droplets travel less of a distance in Europe?

Lockdowns? If anyone has the audacity to disagree with lockdowns or masks . . . “you are a mean anti-social person that wishes harm to others. You’re wrong. Shut up. We do not need or want your opinion. Anyone who opposes lockdowns or the constant wearing of masks is  dangerous.”

The latest “we are right, you’re wrong, no discussion is needed” is against the authors of The Great Barrington Declaration, which is, in essence, a statement written by three public health experts from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford. It encourages governments to lift lockdown restrictions on young and healthy people while focusing protection measures on the elderly. This would allow COVID-19 to spread in a population where it is less likely to be deadly. The authors state that this would encourage widespread immunity that is not dependent on a vaccine.

These three epidemiologists have been vilified not only by the press, but also by other medical professionals that do not agree with them.(“Despite the fact that you are three distinguished epidemiologists, you are wrong. Shut up!”)

One of the main authors states that lockdown restrictions violate two main tenets of public health (from the WSJ):

• You cannot just look at Covid but must look holistically at health and evaluate collateral damage,for example, worsening incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer, as well as an alarming decline in immunizations world wide.
• You cannot just look at the short term; we will be dealing with these long term lockdown consequences for a very long time.

The proponents of government lockdowns in the name of protecting the public from dangerous ideas will not open up the topic to scientific discourse. (“We are right. You’re wrong. No discussion is needed. Shut up.”) 

What is very interesting is that the WHO, just within the last few weeks, has reversed its stance and has come out against lockdowns. I have seen neither this latest WHO statement nor a summary of The Great Barrington Declaration in my local “newspaper.”

Furthermore, as an aside, this is the issue I have with the all-knowing Dr. Fauci. He is only considering Covid from the morbidity and the mortality due to the virus itself. As best I can ascertain he does not consider any of the ancillary damage that comes from his one size fits all policies. It seems to me that he has put on blinders to any of the obvious ancillary damage that comes from his stringent views, and that is why, at this point, I think that he has outlived his usefulness.