I awoke this morning thinking about pendulums. Later in the morning I realized that thinking about pendulums is a strange thing to think about … or is it? Pendulums are nature’s way to bring things back back towards the center, and in everyday life pendulum-like action is a way of bringing rationality back toward the center.
In baseball and football many teams start off saying that the goal is to make it to the World Series or to the Super Bowl, but a few weeks into the season, this changes to “making the playoffs,” as rationality-pendulum kicks in.
Today my pendulum question involves Electric Vehicles. When is the EV-rationality pendulum going to kick in? Right now those on the left are mandating that all vehicles need to be electric by the year, XXXX. Anyone who thinks rationally knows that these prospective dates for all EVs are going to be impossible to achieve, and I think that we are starting to see the beginnings of a pendulum swing.
From IssuesInsights:
“The latest indication is the sharp drop in prices for used EVs.
A report from iSeeCars.com, a search engine for auto buyers, found that the average price for all cars declined 5% in 2023 compared with 2022.
But the resale price EVs plunged 33%.
“Even with this dramatic decline in prices, it took 40% longer to sell an EV in 2023 than it did the year before. Used gas-powered cars, in contrast, sold 10% faster than they did in 2022.
“This combination of lower prices and slower sales suggests EVs have hit a market demand threshold that will be difficult to break through,” said Karl Brauer, iSeeCars executive analyst.
“But it’s not just the used EV market that is cratering. iSeeCars found the same trends with new EV sales. The time it took to get an EV off a dealer’s lot more than doubled in 2023. It now takes roughly three times as long to see an EV than a conventional car, despite price cuts and Biden’s huge EV tax credit.”
Hertz scaled back its plans to add more EVs to its rental fleet, citing high repair costs and declining resale value. German-based rental car company Sixt said it’s phasing out Tesla rentals from its fleets because of reduced resale value.
“So, let’s sum up: New EVs aren’t selling, despite massive government subsidies. Used EVs aren’t selling. People who own EVs often give up on them and switch back to gas-powered cars.”
To me this is the beginning of the pendulum swinging. How far and how long will it take for this EV-pendulum to swing back towards rationality?
I think it depends on the next election. If the Republicans win, rationality will resurface and the pendulum swing will accelerate. If the Dems win, the elites will continue to override the will of the people, and the present pendulum swing will be aborted.
2/6/24