Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Can We Learn Anything ?


Can we learn anything from what is happening with the coronavirus in Europe?

I just saw an interesting chart that compares the present day hospitalization rates per 100,000 population in many many European countries, compared to the spring peak. In the spring many European countries got slammed hard, e.g. Spain and Italy, whereas other European countries had only a very small infection tally, with some in single digits, for example the Czech Republic (4 hospitalizations per 100,000 population), Bulgaria (6/100,000), Hungary 7/100,000), Latvia (2/100,000), Finland (4/100,000), Norway 6/100,000). 

What is interesting is that other than Norway, Finland, and Iceland (islands or practically islands), those countries that had a spring incidence of hospitalizations in single digits are now getting hit very hard. For example, in the Czech Republic the hospitalization rate now is 882% of what is was in the spring, in Bulgaria, 382% compared to the spring, in Slovakia, 285% compared to the spring, in Hungary, 249%.

Likewise those countries that had a higher incidence of hospitalizations in the spring now have a much lower percent. For example, Belgium, 43% now compared to the spring, France, 34%, Italy, 24%, Luxembourg, 15%.

Why ?

To me there are only a few possible explanations for this phenomena:

First in those countries with a high hospitalization rate in the spring, the most vulnerable died off in the spring and so now those being affected with the virus are the more resilient portion of the population, and thus now have a lower hospitalization rate.

Second, coincident with the high hospitalization rate in the spring, there was, in general, a higher incidence of infections in those countries, and consequently more individuals have achieved some measure of immunity.

Similarly if one looks at the reverse . . . low incidence in the spring with an overwhelming rate of hospitalizations now (Czech Republic or Bulgaria), the same question remains – Why?

Again to my way of thinking this is possibly due to the severity and the efficiency of lockdowns in the spring. For instance, if the Czech Republic was stringently locked in the spring, their most vulnerable would still be alive now, and thus susceptible to a severe infections. Likewise consequent to lockdowns in the spring, the Czech Republic would have very little immunity in the general population.

So back to the original question . . . Can our country, our state, or our county learn anything from what’s happening in Europe?

Perhaps the message should be . . . either pay the piper now or later, but in the end, every country, state or county will pay. Lockdowns can only delay the piper, not prevent him from collecting his due. Are you listening Governor Newsom?

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