As I am sure you realize today is the official Election Day even though voting has been going on for quite a while in multiple locales. Thus it is possible that the election has basically already been decided.
For many months I have predicted a Trump victory, and some have asked why I have felt so strongly.
Some recent events obviously did not color my opinion months back. The latest news about jobs (in October there were just 12,000 new jobs, below the consensus estimate of 113,000) was inconsequential because the American people know that many cannot find a job.
I think that the Trump endorsements by Megyn Kelly, Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, and RFKJr had only a minimal effect. Likewise, I do not think that the “garbage” comment by Joe Biden had much of an effect.
Similarly,my opinion does not involve the betting sites, (Polymarket now favors Trump 60-40). Months back when I predicted a Trump victory the betting odds were close to even money.
Likewise my opinion did not involve polling, as back when I first predicted a Trump victory, the polling results showed that the race was close to even, and now every day it seems that different polling numbers are coming out.
To reiterate, for months I have been saying that Trump will be our next President. My prediction of a Trump victory was based on my betting on the judgement, pertinacity, and knowledge of the American electorate. Despite what the mainstream media was preaching, I was betting on the American people.
11/5/24