Month: November 2020

We now have almost daily statistics on the Wuhan coronavirus. We know a lot about the frequency and the mortality of the disease. These statistics can easily be found for countries, states, and individual counties within each state. We can also see the mortality rates for different age groups, basically confirming what we have known for many months . . . Covid is bad for older individuals, especially those with underlying conditions. Yes, Covid can kill people of all ages, but even in the >70 years old age groups, the chance of surviving Covid is more than 90+%. A recent study stated the the flu is significantly more deadly for younger people than is Covid.

What is now starting to come out are the deleterious effects of implementing lockdowns which are being touted to be approaching to a cure. We are now realizing that these lockdowns have increasingly more common detrimental consequences. 

For some reason these adverse consequences of lockdowns are not well publicized and so what follows here is a partial list (from the Daily Caller):

Employment rates fell by 5 percentage points between January to April of this year; this is more than the drop during and after the Great Recession.

In addition, 44 percent of the population experienced a decline in earnings and 54 percent experienced a decrease in savings.

A Pew Research Center survey released in September found that one-in-four Americans had trouble paying their bills since the pandemic started, a third dipped into savings or retirement accounts to make ends meet. Nearly one-in-six reported borrowing money from friends or family or gotten food from a food bank. Overall, 25% of U.S. adults also reported saying they or someone in their household lost their job because of the pandemic.

Thousands of businesses also closed across the U.S., many unable to stay afloat after being deemed non-essential during lockdowns. Yelp’s Economic Impact Report in September revealed that 60% of businesses that closed won’t be reopening, according to CNBC. As of Aug, 31, 163,735 businesses indicated on Yelp that they have closed, a decrease from the 180,000 that closed at the very beginning of the pandemic. However, it actually shows a 23% increase in the number of closures since mid-July.

Stay-at-home orders and other physical distancing measures were not only economically and socially disruptive, but also contributed to adverse psychological health issues. 

A study published in September found that nearly a quarter of people in the United States are experiencing symptoms of depression, which is about three times the number before the pandemic. Another study showed that social isolation and loneliness among U.S. adults in the earliest months of the pandemic was also elevated.

In April 2020, 13.6% of US adults reported symptoms of serious psychological distress, relative to 3.9% in 2018, the study found. A Centers for Disease Control (CDC) study released in August found that a startling 25% percent of young adults, aged 18-24, say they’ve thought of committing suicide in the last month due to coronavirus conditions.

Doctors at California’s John Muir Medical Center said in May that deaths by suicide were outstripping those by the coronavirus, noting that they had seen a “year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.”

The sad aspects as a direct result of “the cure,” are not limited to just these psychological and economic  mal-consequences. Drug overdoses have escalated. Overall, suspected overdoses rose about 18% after states began mandating lockdowns in March compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to data from the Overdose Detection Mapping Application Program, The WSJ reported.

In San Francisco, four times more people have died due to drug overdoses than from coronavirus in 2020, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

And of course, these deleterious effects of lockdowns are not limited to what I have noted above. A myriad of delayed medical procedures, skipped cancer screenings, and postponed immunizations will have consequences for years to come.

Is the cure worse than the disease?

Unfortunately, from my point of view, the answer is “yes!”

“Don’t go playing out in the alley. It’s too dangerous.” That was back in 1950, and since I was five years old, I did what I was told.

“Don’t go playing at that construction site. It’s too dangerous.” That was circa 1956, and since I was a kid and my parents fed me, I did what I was told. (BTW, they were right, as Teddy Leahy fell at broke his arm at that same construction site the following day.)

“Don’t go south on the Dan Ryan Expressway. It’s too dangerous.” That was back in 1962 when I got my driver’s license. (To this day I still avoid the Dan Ryan Expressway in Chicago, as if you have to get off for any reason, you’ll be taking your life in your hands.)

When I turned twenty-one I figured that I could make my own decisions. I was now an adult. In 1967 I basically “sang” the 1959 Lloyd Price song,

I’m Gonna Get Married . . .which went like this:

“(Johnny, you’re too young)

But I’m gonna get married

(You’re so young)

My name she’ll carry

(You’re too young)

(And Johnny you’re so smart)

But not smart enough to hide

An aching heart”

(For those of you not old enough to recognize this song, this should help from Google:

“I’m Gonna Get Married” is a 1959 R&B/pop hit written by Harold Logan and Lloyd Price and recorded by Lloyd Price. The single was his follow-up to “Personality” and, like that entry, “I’m Gonna Get Married” went to number one on the Billboard R&B chart, where it stayed for three consecutive weeks.)

I was right back then 1967. I made the right choice. I was a big boy, and this was America. Back then in America, everyone could make and then be responsible for their own decisions. What happened to that America? 

Now it seems that even though I am considerably older that I was in 1967, I am not being allowed to make my own decisions. For example, “You can go to a strip club or a casino, but you cannot go to church.” 

Me: “Why not?”

Just like my parents years back, those who know best answer, “It’s too dangerous. And furthermore you cannot go to a restaurant or to your gym, as they also are too dangerous.”

Me: “Why am I not allowed to make these decisions for myself? I am a big boy, and the last time I checked, this was still America. If I want to go to a restaurant, I should be able to do it. I should be able to access the risk, and then decide for myself. If I want to go to my gym, I should be able to do it. This is still America. 

From my perspective, if restaurant A is the source of a Covid outbreak (defined as three or more cases not from the same family), then do the logical thing, and shut down restaurant A. Why is God’s name would any rational person close down all of the restaurants in a county?! I thought that this was still America.

Likewise, if gym B is the source of an Covid outbreak, then quarantine  gym B for a period of time. Again with the risk of being redundant … I thought that this was still America.

Oops . . . my mistake, it’s California.

First from the Daily Caller:

After ordering a lockdown for her city, the black Democratic Chicago Mayor, Lori Lightfoot defended her attendance at a mass celebration for President-elect Joe Biden, saying people “need to have relief.”

Lightfoot announced on 11/12 that Chicago residents should “cancel traditional Thanksgiving plans” in the interests of social distancing and public safety as the coronavirus continues to surge in her city and across the U.S.

“With this new surge in cases, we have just got to step up and do the right thing. And I think people understand that. We know a lot more … than what we knew back in the spring. We’ve got a lot more data. We understand better on how this virus spreads,” Lightfoot said.

Lightfoot stated that right now “the biggest risk that we’re seeing in our city is in these private spaces and gatherings” such as a Thanksgiving dinner gathering. 

Meanwhile, while the governor asks Californians to forgo large gatherings this year, Newsom was spotted at a large birthday celebration in Napa Valley last week.

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

The dinner the night of Nov. 6 at the famed French Laundry in Yountville in Napa County brought together at least 12 people to celebrate the 50th birthday of Jason Kinney, a longtime friend and political adviser to Newsom who is also a partner at the lobbying firm Axiom Advisors. In addition to the governor, his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, was in attendance.

State guidelines limit gatherings, defined as “social situations that bring together people from different households at the same time in a single space or place,” to no more than three households. Representatives for Kinney and Newsom declined to specify how many households the diners represented, but did not dispute that it was more than three.

So again we have a situation here in California that is reminiscent of Nancy Pelosi’s haircut  “do as I say, not as I do,” fiasco a few months back. I have been told Ms. Pelosi and Gavin the G.are somehow related, so perhaps they share the “I am better than you commoners” gene. 

So the obvious question remains . . .  Are Gavin Newsom and Lori Lightfoot related?

My assumption is that the votes that carried this election were those of young, “Student” voters. Though actual statistics won’t be available for a couple years, my calculation following a review of the pre-election info available online, is that 71% of the 10 million undergrad students (or 7.1 million) planned to vote and 70% of those pledged to vote for Biden/Kamala, accounting for nearly 5 Million votes. 

To all of You, I applaud the interest and passion that drove Your activism and so, Congratulations to you! The survival of our democracy will certainly require that level of enthusiasm.

There’s one major problem with this. When coupled with the significant number of voters who were participating…and in many cases leading the demonstrations and protests (that resulted in so much damage done to Our cities and to small businesses and their owners; many of whom will never be able to afford to reopen), is that you represent a critical mass of the population that has yet to meaningfully contribute to our society and economy i.e. have a real job/career and pay taxes. Not to mention having yet to make a single mortgage payment, pay for your own insurance, or things like braces for your children, and, paying for their education…YOUR Education. You therefore, have Absolutely No Idea what it is you were fighting so passionately for (or against)!

What you students need to do, similar to how you empathized with minorities when you posted your black screens and your rainbow flags before that, is “personalize” the adverse affect of those sentiments and soon to be policies, which will emanate from Your misguided idealism.

Imagine for a moment that the cafe or bookstore who’s windows were broken, inventory stolen, counters urinated & defecated on before being burned, was YOUR lifetime dream. Imagine that the police officer who’s face was spat on and life threatened was YOUR Dad, Mom or Sister (or YOU) who made the career choice to help and protect people…and have to continue showing up to face that treatment (along with Your general ire and contempt) because they need to house, feed and clothe YOU. 

TheBiden/Harris policies, and the policies that they support, will reverse the progress made over the past four years, and will be a huge detriment to Your ability as educated students, to get a well-paying job and realize Your dreams. And, hopefully, those dreams don’t involve owning Your own business because Biden/Kamala are Anti-Business, Anti-Corporation, Anti-Manufacturing and Anti-progress. Their policies will once again, increase regulation, which is the greatest roadblock to Innovation, Entrepreneurship and “Made in America”! They’ve also unapologetically pledged to Raise Taxes for every one of You who strives to succeed. The more successful You become, the more You’ll pay in taxes. Up to 70%-90% for the most successful of YOU! All, in the interest of “Economic Equality” i.e. SOCIALISM!

You see, having not yet paid your dues (see above re: Your not yet contributing), what you might not understand is that, in real life, NOTHING IS FREE! I ask You to imagine for a second, what it costs to feed, house and clothe one single person. Add to that, the cost to provide them with medical care, an education, and perhaps a minimal amount of spending money. Now, multiply that by the hundreds…no, thousands…how about tens of thousands that are being allowed to enter our country illegally. How do you propose we pay that bill? I know it’s difficult because most of You have No Idea!

B.A.S.

Dear Governor Newsom,                                               November 12,2020

As you are fully aware we are going to be dropping down to a lower tier in our county … meaning that because of some arbitrary criteria that you and Dr. Ghaly have formulated, the lives of a myriad of people are now headed further into “disaster mode.” Now this is going to happen not only to thousands of people here in San Diego County, but also to many many more throughout the state.

As an aside, are either you or Dr. Ghaly going to be going on unemployment because of your arbitrary tiers? I think not. Do you ever consider how you are effecting the lives of small business owners, especially those in the food service arena? I think not. These people have already lost a lot, or perhaps even all, of their savings trying to keep their businesses alive while you are comfortably rich, living in your gated community. 

This latest lockdown imposition will be the final straw for many. Their businesses will die. Their employees will no longer be employed. Do you realize what you have done to these hard working people? I think not.

Why are you ruining their lives?

I think the reasoning goes something like this: Because the number of Covid cases is increasing, inevitably the number of hospitalizations will go up, and our hospitals will be overwhelmed. (Much as you do not want to admit it, “overwhelmed” is conjecture. Will hospitalizations go up? . . . but overwhelmed?)

If in a few weeks this overwhelming of our ICUs does not occur, will you be willing to reimburse these small business owners for their losses . . . from your own fortune? I think not!

I do not wish ill will on anybody, but if there is a God, your recall will be successful.

Sincerely,

The California Contrarian

Am I depressed ?
Is the Pope a Catholic?

Does the sun rise in the East?

Obviously the answer to all three questions is “yes.”

Whereas, I missed on my prediction of the outcome of thePresidential election… at least as it presently stands, (FYI: I picked Trump to win.),I did correctly predict the outcome of the closest Senate races – as I predicted that the Republicans would win two of four, and they did win No. Carolina and Iowa, losing Arizona and Michigan.

 I am going to try to stay objective during the upcoming weeks as the various suits go through the process of adjudication. I am fairly sure that everyone knows what I hope happens in the courts, but I am going to try to avoid non-verifiable rumors. 

Looking at the good side . . . If the Biden victory holds up, at least I will have plenty to write about during the next four years.

Because there is no way to post responses on this website, I am now going to be considering “guest submissions” on a trial basis. My Board of Directors, of which I am a member, will review any potential submissions before actually posting them. They will be held to the same high standards as now. Remember, no naughty words!

Can we learn anything from what is happening with the coronavirus in Europe?

I just saw an interesting chart that compares the present day hospitalization rates per 100,000 population in many many European countries, compared to the spring peak. In the spring many European countries got slammed hard, e.g. Spain and Italy, whereas other European countries had only a very small infection tally, with some in single digits, for example the Czech Republic (4 hospitalizations per 100,000 population), Bulgaria (6/100,000), Hungary 7/100,000), Latvia (2/100,000), Finland (4/100,000), Norway 6/100,000). 

What is interesting is that other than Norway, Finland, and Iceland (islands or practically islands), those countries that had a spring incidence of hospitalizations in single digits are now getting hit very hard. For example, in the Czech Republic the hospitalization rate now is 882% of what is was in the spring, in Bulgaria, 382% compared to the spring, in Slovakia, 285% compared to the spring, in Hungary, 249%.

Likewise those countries that had a higher incidence of hospitalizations in the spring now have a much lower percent. For example, Belgium, 43% now compared to the spring, France, 34%, Italy, 24%, Luxembourg, 15%.

Why ?

To me there are only a few possible explanations for this phenomena:

First in those countries with a high hospitalization rate in the spring, the most vulnerable died off in the spring and so now those being affected with the virus are the more resilient portion of the population, and thus now have a lower hospitalization rate.

Second, coincident with the high hospitalization rate in the spring, there was, in general, a higher incidence of infections in those countries, and consequently more individuals have achieved some measure of immunity.

Similarly if one looks at the reverse . . . low incidence in the spring with an overwhelming rate of hospitalizations now (Czech Republic or Bulgaria), the same question remains – Why?

Again to my way of thinking this is possibly due to the severity and the efficiency of lockdowns in the spring. For instance, if the Czech Republic was stringently locked in the spring, their most vulnerable would still be alive now, and thus susceptible to a severe infections. Likewise consequent to lockdowns in the spring, the Czech Republic would have very little immunity in the general population.

So back to the original question . . . Can our country, our state, or our county learn anything from what’s happening in Europe?

Perhaps the message should be . . . either pay the piper now or later, but in the end, every country, state or county will pay. Lockdowns can only delay the piper, not prevent him from collecting his due. Are you listening Governor Newsom?

I just read something that could be potentially be disastrous. If you are weak of heart, perhaps you should not read any further.

I am talking about a new mutated form of the coronavirus . . . in Denmark, of all places. Denmark has a population of 5.8 million people, but more important has a population of 17 million mink. These mink are on mink farms of which there are around one thousand in that country, and a mutated form of the coronavirus has been found in minks in Denmark. This is of big enough concern that there is a possibility that Denmark will order the culling of all of these mink. At this point apparently there has been spread of this mutant coronavirus from mink into humans, albeit only twelve cases.

What does this mean? At this point we do not know. 

Basically there are two possibilities . . . it could mean basically nothing, or . . . we could be on the verge of a second pandemic caused by a mutated Denmark mink coronavirus. This is a worrisome possibility if those who have immunity to Covid 19 because of a past infection are not immune to this Denmark mink virus. Also, even more worrisome is the possibility that a vaccine for Covid-19 will not work for this new mutated form. 

How worried should we be?

At this point flights are still coming to and going from Copenhagen to around the world, so apparently WHO is not concerned. However, rumor has it that early this a.m. Britain with just two hours notice suspended incoming flights from Denmark.

Hopefully this British concern over this Denmark mink virus will prove to be nothing.

FYI, I wear a mask in situations where I cannot social distance, for example in a store or in Costco. I do not wear one in situations where social distancing is not necessary, for example walking in my neighborhood or on the beach. I do not wear a mask in situations where social distancing is not an issue, for example when driving my car or when taking out the garbage. I wear a mask when the proprietor requests that I wear one, for example at the gym even though no one is within fifteen feet of me for longer than a second or two.

Suffice it to say, I am not convinced that masks are the end-all absolute answer, but for the sake of harmony I will wear one in situations where everyone else is wearing one . . . “when in Rome!” If I am not wearing a mask when I am out walking, and get taken to task by some Karen, I am ready with my response . . . “Karen, you of course know that wearing a mask is supposed to prevent me from spreading the virus to somebody else. Well, good news! I just got my Covid test back this morning, and I am negative. Thus, I have no virus to spread. Lucky you. Have a nice day.”

Seriously, is there any evidence that mask-wearing prevents the spread of infection? If there is, I am not aware of it. In the past few days I read two different articles on masks.

The first was in the Wall Street Journal by Joseph Ladapo M.D., an associate professor at UCLA’s School of Medicine. From his piece: “Several randomized trials of community or household masking have been completed. Most have shown that wearing a mask has little or no effect on respiratory virus transmission, according to a review published earlier this year in Emerging Infectious Diseases, a CDC Journal.”

Likewise, states with mask mandates had a 2% reduction in growth rates of Covid-19 compared to states without such mandates. Only a 2% difference implies that either people weren’t compliant, or that they do not make much of a difference.

Again from Dr. Ladapo, “Based on evidence around the world, it should be clear that masked mandates won’t extinguish the virus.”

Recently Senator Ron Paul M.D. tweeted:

To the scolds blaming ⁦@ realDonaldTrump infection on not wearing mask: the only published randomized clinical study of cloth masks shows 97% penetration of particles & higher infection rate than control. The discussion from that article, BMJ, 2015, says the following, concerning HCW (hospital workers):

“We have provided the first clinical efficacy data of cloth masks, which suggest HCWs should not use cloth masks as protection against respiratory infection. Cloth masks resulted in significantly higher rates of infection than medical masks, and also performed worse than the control arm. The controls were HCWs who observed standard practice, which involved mask use in the majority, albeit with lower compliance than in the intervention arms. The control HCWs also used medical masks more often than cloth masks. When we analysed all mask-wearers including controls, the higher risk of cloth masks was seen for laboratory-confirmed respiratory viral infection.”

On the other hand a physician on YouTube in Britain, Dr. John Campbell, thinks that mask wearing by an individual may decrease the inoculum that one receives from someone who has the virus. If this is true, it could mean that mask wearers are more likely to get a milder infection, and getting a milder infection would be a good thing. Again he is saying that mask-wearing does not prevent infection, but rather attenuates it.

Now that the election is over, it will be interesting to see if the compliance with mask wearing changes.

In the last twenty-four hours I have either heard or read a lot of things that imply that a lot of skullduggery may have occurred with voting and vote tabulation in multiple states. Now of course, I cannot verify if any of these “rumor/accusations” are verifiable. Perhaps they all are; perhaps none of them are.

Where to start? Here are a few:

In Wisconsin the “rumor” that there were more ballots cast than there are registered voters . . . and not just by a few, but rather by the thousands. Rumor or truth ?

In Michigan there were multiple ballots cast by people who were born prior to 1900. One vote was from someone born in 1850! Gee, I wonder who that guy voted for? These obvious dead people were sent ballot. The scuttlebutt is that this may have been done purposefully. 

Rumor or truth?

From Twitter: 

Michigan @USPS Whistleblower Details Directive From Superiors: Back-Date Late Mail-In-Ballots As Received November 3rd, 2020 So They Are Accepted “Separate them from standard letter mail so they can hand stamp them with YESTERDAY’S DATE & put them through.” . . . rumor or truth?

Pennsylvania is apparently accepting ballots with no postmark and no signature. Hmmm! Rumor or truth?

In Arizona: 

Rumor has it that voters in Trump districts were given Sharpies with which to fill in their ballots . . . but the readers do not recognize Sharpies!

Rumor or truth?

In Michigan:

A woman monitoring the ballot counting in Detroit has asserted that at least 130,000 ballots, all for Joe Biden, were brought to the center in three vehicles at 4 a.m. Hmmm!

Rumor or truth?

USPS did not comply with order to do ballot sweeps prior to the deadline. Rumor or truth?

US District Judge Emmet Sullivan told a lawyer for the US Postal Service that he was “not pleased” with the USPS after it failed to meet a deadline to sweep facilities in several states for undelivered ballots and immediately send them to election officials. This we know is true. However . . . The USPS says it conducted delayed last-minute sweeps but only found “around 12 or 13 ballots, which were sent on to the appropriate election authorities” Truth?

Whew! I’m betting that we have just begun and there will be many more of these rumors/accusations. Fasten your seatbelts!