Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Trade-offs



Last week my wife pointed out to me an article that stated that the “Swedish experiment” didn’t work. Sweden’s chief epidemiologist said last week that Sweden should have enacted more stringent restrictions as its death rate per million people was significantly higher than its neighbors. Without question, he is undoubtedly receiving heat from the Johnny-come-lately second guessers, who are reacting to the fact that the Swedish death rate is indeed higher than that of its Nordic neighbors, especially for those in nursing homes.

However, I do not think that Sweden’s approach was primarily intended to minimize their death rate, but rather it was a trade-off. The Swedish hope was that their coronavirus related deaths could be limited commensurate with limiting the damage to their economy. The most recent economic stats in comparison to their neighbor, Denmark, seem to be showing that the Swedish approach is benefiting their economy. According to a recent WSJ article: 

-Newly unemployed from March 11 through May, was less in Sweden – 2.9% of the labor force in Sweden compared to 4.2% in Denmark.

-The drop in retail sales – 4.4% in Denmark and 1.3% in Sweden.

-Projected drop in private consumption this year – 6% in Denmark versus 1% in Sweden.

In Sweden, it was and continues to be all about trade-offs.

As it has been all along with Covid-19, the restrictions/no restrictions or the less restrictions/more restrictions has always been about trade-offs. If a country paralyzes it economy by imposing extremely strict restrictions or lockdowns, then of course one would expect to have less Covid-19 cases and visa-vi, less deaths due to Covid-19.  To me that is just common sense. 

It is important to recall that these severe lockdowns, notably in the U.S, were initiated in order to “flatten the curve” and thus prevent our hospitals and their ICUs from being inundated with Covid-19 cases. In that respect, it appears that it may have worked.( Interesting that in Sweden with only a very minimal sort of lockdown, there was no shortage of either hospital beds or I.C.U. beds.) 

Also in the health realm, these lockdowns also brought an unforeseen, or at least not talked about, trade-off . . . the cancelling and indefinite postponement of elective surgery, and, of course, if there was not going to be any elective surgery in the foreseeable future, obviously why do any testing to see if elective surgery was indicated. Without question, when these lockdowns are eased, these test postponements will then lead to a deluge of testing and subsequently the “no-longer elective” surgeries will be backlogged from here to Peoria . . . for some, this will come too late! (These patients fortunately will not have died because of Covid, but unfortunately will have died because of Covid restrictions.) Trade-offs!

However commensurate with the perceived and the potential I.C.U./hospital benefits, these severe lockdown strategies brought with them significant economic bedfellows. Yes, as the curve was flattened, unemployment rates were expected to rise, and indeed they did. In the U.S the overall unemployment rate rose to a historic 14.7 % in April. While it improved somewhat in May. It was still bad at 13.3%. However, Black unemployment which had been at record lows before the lockdowns surged to well above 16% in April, and rose even higher to 16.8% in May. I haven’t been able to find the numbers for the unemployment rates for youths, either black or white. However, watching the protests/riots on T.V., I think I can assume that they both must be extraordinarily high, as the young protesters/rioters are obviously not worrying about getting up the next morning to go to work. Not unexpected, as I guess that youth unemployment rates are always higher than the overall rates. 

Unfortunately the death of George Floyd was the accelerant that led to the present conflagration in the streets of America, but it was a dramatic rise in youth unemployment that provided more than just the kindling. How is that lockdown vs. economy trade-off looking now!?

There have been other social consequences to these lockdowns. Child abuse – up. Spousal abuse – up. Depression – up. Suicides – up. Unfortunately the unintended consequences of prohibiting children from going to school will be with us for years to come! Why they are not all back to school now is in my mind . . . beyond astounding! Let me go on the record now . . . the so-called “hybrid education plan” will not work, and will only do more damage to the psyches of our school children. Another potential disastrous trade-off in the making ?

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