Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Toyota

The following is certainly is food for thought, and it comes from multiple sources.

Japan’s Toyota — is currently the world’s largest automaker. Toyota and Volkswagen vie for that title each year — each taking the crown from the other — as the market moves.

GM — America’s largest automaker — is about half Toyota’s size –thanks to its 2009 bankruptcy and restructuring.

Actually — Toyota is a major car manufacturer in the U.S. In 2016 about 81% of the cars it sold in the U.S. came off American assembly lines.

Toyota was among the first to introduce gas/electric hybrid cars with the Prius twenty years ago. The company hasn’t been afraid to change the car game.

All of this is to point out that Toyota understands both the car market and the infrastructure that supports the car market. Probably understands better than any other manufacturer on the planet.

Toyota hasn’t grown through acquisitions as Volkswagen has, and it hasn’t undergone bankruptcy and bailout as GM has. Toyota has grown by building reliable cars and trucks for decades.

When Toyota offers an opinion on the car market it’s probably worth listening to.

This week Toyota reiterated — The world is not yet ready to support a fully electric auto fleet.

Toyota’s Robert Wimmer (head of energy & environmental research) said this week in testimony before the U.S. Senate, “If we are to make dramatic progress in electrification it will require overcoming tremendous challenges – challenges including : refueling infrastructure/battery availability /consumer acceptance / and affordability.”

Wimmer’s remarks come on the heels of GM’s announcement that it will phase out all gas internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035.

Tellingly, both Toyota and Honda have so far declined to make any such promises. Honda is the world’s largest engine manufacturer (when you include : boats / motorcycles / lawnmowers / etc) Honda competes with Briggs & Stratton in those markets amid increased electrification of [traditionally gas powered] lawnmowers / weed trimmers /etc.

While manufacturers have announced ambitious goals just 2% of the world’s cars are electric at this point.

Buyers continue to choose ICE over electric because of: price /range / infrastructure /affordability / etc. Only a small percentage of people would choose an electric car unless forced to buy.

There are 289.5 million cars just on U.S. roads as of 2021. About 98 percent of them are gas-powered.

Toyota’s RAV4 took the top spot for purchases in the 2019 U.S market — Honda’s CR-V is second and GM’s top seller (Equinox) comes in at #4 behind the Nissan Rogue. GM only has one entry in the U.S.top 15. Toyota and Honda dominate – each with a handful in the top 15.

Toyota warns: the US electrical grid and infrastructure simply aren’t there to support the electrification of the private car fleet.

A 2017 U.S. government study found we would need about 8,500 strategically-placed charging stations to support a fleet of just 7 million electric cars.

That’s about six times the current number of electric cars.

But no one should be talking about supporting just 7 million cars.

We should be talking about powering about 300 million within the next 20 years if all manufacturers follow GM and stop making ICE cars.

We are gonna need a biggerenergyboat to deal with connecting all those cars to the power grids – a WHOLE LOT bigger boat.

But instead of building a bigger boat we may be shrinking our boat. Power outages in California and Texas have exposed issues with power supplies even at current usage levels.

Increasing usage of wind and solar, — both of whichproveunreliable — has driven some coal and natural gas generators offline

We will need much more generation capacity to power about 300 million cars if we’re all going to be forced to drive electric cars, and we will be charging them frequently. Every roadside gas station must be wired to charge electric cars and charging speeds must increase greatly

Current technology allows charges in “as little as 30 minutes” – but that best-case fast charging cannot be done on home power. Charging at home (on alternating current) takes a few hours to overnight and will increase the home power bill.

That power, like all electricity in the United States, comes from generators using: natural gas /petroleum/coal/nuclear/wind/solar/or hydroelectric sources.

Even half an hour is an unacceptably long time to spend charging. It’s about 5 to 10 times longer than a gas pump takes. Imagine big rigs with much larger tanks. Imagine the charging lines that would form every day if charge time isn’t reduced by 70 to 80 percent

We can expect improvements but those won’t come without cost. Electrifying the auto fleet requires massive overhaul of the power grid and an enormous increase in power generation.

Toyota has publicly warned about this twice while its smaller rival GM is pushing to go electric. GM may be trying to win favor with those in power in California/ Washington / and in the media.

Toyota’s addressing reality, and they know what they are talking about.

Toyota isn’t saying none of this can be done. They are saying that conversations are not anywhere near serious and will not produce meaningful results.

3/21/23

124 Replies to “Toyota”

  1. From Jalopnik:
    As the world moves towards electric vehicles, Toyota keeps banging a different zero-emission drum: Hydrogen. Between the production Mirai and hydrogen-powered concepts with manual transmissions or big V8 power, the company clearly views hydrogen-powered vehicles as part of our automotive future. Incoming CEO Koji Sato, speaking at an endurance race in which Toyota campaigned a hydrogen racer, seems to agree.

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