Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Small Groups


As I pointed out in my first book (The Quirky Contrarian) one of the reasons that Donald Trump won in 2016 had to do with his ability to appeal to various unrelated small groups. I think that this was a brilliant strategy back in 2016 as for many individuals there was one issue that they were gung-ho on. A relatively small group voted for Trump basically because of his support for issue A. Likewise there were those who were gung-ho on issue B, and Trump strategically focused on issue B. These voters in multiple small groups voted for Trump, because he supported A, B, C, D, etc.

Different than in 2016 a lot of the issues, like A and B referenced above, are no longer key relevant issues, so the question in 2020 is whether or not President Trump will have a similar type of  strategy. My answer is unquestionably yes, and in fact he has already started down that path.

For instance let’s look at the major issue of the day . . . children going back to school. For many young parents this is a humongous problem. If the kids do not go back to school, both of the parents cannot go to work. If both parents are not able to work, then there is trouble paying the rent, etc., etc. By going out on the proverbial limb on this issue, Donald Trump has established himself as the only candidate that a lot of these young parents will vote for. They may not agree with a lot of other things that Trump stands for, and they may not even like him . . . but their kids need to get back to school!

A payroll tax cut is something that President Trump supports and the Democrats do not. A lot of working Americans are struggling to regain their footing as the coronavirus and its consequent economic residua have set them back a fair amount. For a lot of people a payroll tax cut could be the life-line that they need. If this is the key issue for this group, they will vote for Trump. . . . another relatively small group.


The issue of ongoing protests and consequent mantra of “defund the police” will be a huge plus for the President. Those leftists who live in these chaotic cities will never be persuaded in voting for Trump. However, there are a lot of innocent independents living in these Democratic cities who can see nothing but big trouble for them and their families if there is a lack of police presence in their communities. Joe Biden apparently does not view this situation the same as President Trump. I do not anticipate Trump winning the overall vote in any of these Democrat run cities, but this is another small group for which this could well be the key issue.

Gun ownership. There are literally millions of new gun owners in the U.S over the past few months. The felony charges leveled against the armed St. Louis homeowners who refused to kneel to the protesters who broke onto their property in June was a clear message from Democrat prosecutors to all Americans. This relatively small group of new gun owners do not have to be aligned with the NRA, but when they see other gun owners being chastised and now prosecuted for what should be their right, i.e. defending their property without firing a shot, who are they now going to vote for? Guess!

And finally a repeat issue is the appointment of another Supreme Court Justice. There have been a slew of recent 5-4 decisions with Justice Ginsberg voting her usual. Ig Ginsberg were to be replaced by a conservative or even by a moderate, then some of liberal 5-4 decisions could have easily been 5-4 the other way. Here it doesn’t matter if the case in question concerns Indians in Oklahoma, transgender job discrimination, or D.A.C.A. Again to various small groups the appointment of an additional Justice is the key issue, as Justice Roberts continues to be lost and confused.

There will be more small groups that I will describe as we get closer to the election. Mark my words, Trump will again win them all.

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