Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Lottery ?

In 6 months, or 12 months, or 18 months, when what I am about to describe happens, I want you to remember where you heard it first … right here!

I am talking about what is going to happen when we have a Covid-19 vaccine. My question is who is going to be given priority to get vaccinated first? Who will demand that they go to the top of the list. Who is going to make that decision? When is that decision going to be made. Now here I am not only talking about in the U.S.A., but also in the world.

First, before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s assume that an effective vaccine is made, and let’s assume that it has minimal significant side-effects. Let’s also hope that multiple effective vaccines are made by multiple companies. The population of the world in 2019 is over 7.5 billion (7,577,130,400), while the population of Europe is over 513 million (513,500,000). Furthermore the population of the U.S.A. in 2019 was over 328,500,000 (328.5 million).

Let’s assume that a single drug company (company A) is able to produce one million doses a day. Which country should get those million doses? A second drug company (company B) is also able to produce one million doses a day. If we (whoever “we” is) allocates the one million doses a day from company B to Europe, it would take about 513 days to vaccinate all of Europe. Russia has about 143 million people, and this is peanuts compared to Africa and China, each of which has over one billion people.

Furthermore, let’s assume that 10 million vaccine doses per day can somehow be made. That means that it would about two years to vaccinate everybody in the world.

Are you beginning to see the problem. How is this vaccine going to be allocated and by whom? Should it be given to the poorer countries first because they are less well equipped as far as medical care is concerned? In Europe should it be given to Italy and Spain first, because these countries have suffered the most?

I guess we should just let Europe decide on its own.(BTW: Would Great Britain still be considered as Europe after Brexit?) 

Next let’s discuss the vaccine in the U.S.A where everyone is very open to discuss what is fair!!! For the sake of discussion, let’s give the U.S.A. two million doses a day, because the U.S.A. has financed many of the vaccine makers’s research. Again here in the U.S., who gets first dibs? There could potentially be a number of possible ways to prioritize who gets it first . . . after those in the medical profession and the first responders, should it be the oldest, or the youngest? Cuomo will argue that New York should get it first as they were the hardest hit, whereas Newsom will argue for California because it has the highest population, etc. etc. Illegals? Red states first? Blue states first?

Are you beginning to see the problem?

So far the best suggestion that I have heard, is to have a National Lottery, perhaps similar to the draft lottery back in the sixties, which was based on birthdays. However I am still looking for a better answer, and I think a have one . . . perhaps because the virus is called Covid, those whose last names begin with C should get the vaccine first!

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