Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Investment Advice . . . “Sell!”

Out of the blue last week one of my sons-in-law asked me what was my favorite movie of all time. After I told him what mine was, I asked him the same question. He responded, “My favorite movie of all time is Death Wish.” (For those of you not aware, Death Wish was a 1974 movie starring Charles Bronson.) I do not recall ever seeing Death Wish, probably because in 1974 I was married and had three small children . . . in fact, I do not recall seeing any movies for the entire decade of the 70s! Anyway when he said Death Wish, my immediate thought was the N.F.L. In what other business do the employees tell the owners what to do? I still cannot understand the ownership of the N.F.L. If I knew anyone who owned an N.F.L. team my advice would be, “Sell, Sell now before the 2018 season begins.” Why??. . . Three basic reasons as detailed below:

The television viewership was down last year and I predict that it will continue to decrease. The N.F.L. is on the losing side of this National Anthem culture war, and  more importantly this can only lead to a decrease of interest in football in general, as well as the N.F.L. in particular, as the years go by.

Last year two of my grandsons played tackle football on a community youth team, but this year this same community could not field a team because of a shortage of players, and this same scenario occurred in the three surrounding communities.  Participation in high school football is down and has been down since 2008-09. In 2008-09 there was 1,113,062 high school participants in the U.S.A. whereas this number decreased in 2012-13 to 1,088,158. In Illinois there has been a decrease in the number of students playing high school football of 17%, from 47K to 40K over the last few years.

Last week I saw an email that in essence was an “N.F.L. Police Blotter” detailing a list of multiple N.F.L. players than have been arrested, charged and convicted of crimes. Here in San Diego there is a case involving an ex-pro football player charged with multiple counts of battery in association with sexual aggression. My first thought here was, “He’s got Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy from football.”  My question is basically “which came first?” Are these guys basically violent to begin with, or are they violent because of C.T.E. that they have developed as a result of football? I am betting on C.T.E. to win, place, and show!

So in essence I see the N.F.L. on multiple losing sides of a polygon:                              decreasing T.V. viewership,                                                                                                             increasing awareness of C.T.E.                                                                                 decreasing youth participation in football

If there was a way to own stock in the N.F.L., I would be selling it short, and looking forward to a big payday perhaps ten years down the road!

139 Replies to “Investment Advice . . . “Sell!””

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