Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Amaz(on)ing

I initially wrote this a few months ago, and thus far my predictions are spot on as on 1/18/18, Amazon announced the 20 finalists for its planned second headquarters.

In October, 2017 I had written, but not published, the following:

“Recently the proposals to be the location of Amazon’s new corporate site were submitted. There were bids from 238 cities and regions, including proposals from 54 states,provinces, districts, and territories. Is this a big deal? Absolutely. Mayor de Blasio of New York City said, “This is a competition for 50,000 job openings – jobs we want New Yorkers to land.” New York City was proposing four different locations, all of which meet Amazon’s prerequisites.

Amazon has said that it would make a decision on the new location next year.

Does California have a chance to land this economic bonanza? 

On paper, yes.

Practically speaking, no. 

On paper, California does meet the metrics of some of the potential determining criteria. It has the availability of software developers and other tech talent. It has good transportation options as well as recreational opportunities. It certainly has many metro areas with a population of more than one million people. It appears to be a “good cultural fit” as Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s CEO, is about as liberal as one can get.

On paper . . . A slam dunk, with the only question being whether it will be in NorCal or SoCal.

Practically there are number of reasons why California will not be chosen as the site of this new headquarters. Yes, California may make it to the final eight or ten in deference to some political posturing, but that’s it.  First of all the corporate headquarters are in Seattle and it would make no economic sense to put a second headquarters geographically close. Again practically speaking, California is pretty isolated from the rest of the country. A geographically central or perhaps an East coast location would seem to be much more prudent. Despite this geographic mambo-jumbo, there are many more reasons that California is a ‘no’. 

People are leaving California in droves, and it’s not because of global warming. Since the weather is still good, why are they leaving?

Have you ever tried to drive anywhere in the Bay Area or in or near Los Angeles lately? . . . Horrible, with Sacramento and San Diego not far behind. Why would any company subject their employees to this?

The taxes in California are unbelievable – one of the highest state taxes in the country. Why would any company subject their employees to this? 

The cost of housing is very high and steadily getting worse. Why would a company subject their employees to this? 

The state is veering so far to the left, that soon it will be impossible to make a right turn . . . even with an arrow. I do not think that this will be an actual impediment, as birds of a feather, etc., but over time this tendency to veer  towards socialism can only be bad for all of those trapped in the Golden State. Why would a company subject their future employees to this?

Certainly California can prostitute itself with the best of them when it comes to “bribery” and other tax incentives, but this will not be enough. Just ask Toyota who recently relocated from California to Texas.

Going out on a limb, I am going to predict that either a low state-income-tax state or a no-state-income tax state will win this lottery. At this point, Texas and Tennessee are my favorites.”

 

As noted on 1/18/2018, Amazon narrowed the field of 238 to 20 finalists, and as predicted only one California site (Los Angeles) is still in the running – probably “ in deference to some political posturing.” As a handicapper, my October favorites were Texas and Tennessee, and both (Austin and Nashville) are still in the running. Today I am going to add two more long shots to the mix. The first dark horse is Miami. Not only is Florida is a tax-free state, but its easy access to South America could be advantageous  for future business reasons. The other more nebulous, but politically practical reason for Amazon to choose a Florida location is that Amazon’s founder and Chief Executive, Jeff Bezos, is a far left political player. In recent elections Florida has been playing an increasingly influential role politically, and importing 50,00 new Amazon liberal employees into Florida could turn it blue for decades to come. That leads me to my second dark horse, Columbus, Ohio. I threw a dart at the board and it landed on Columbus for the same reason . . . locating the second headquarters to Ohio  would be a wise geographic choice, and this would add 50,000 liberal voters to that state. From Jeff Bezos viewpoint, “Is there a  better way to turn a purple state like Ohio more blue.”

 

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