Posted on by Californiacontrarian

The Moving Goalposts

I have always liked math, but by no means do I consider myself to be a math aficionado. However, I still know the basics. For instance I know that one doubled is two, and twenty-five doubled is fifty. In this example both one and twenty-five are doubled, but doubling twenty-five is a lot more significant than doubling one, whether we’re talking about dollars, pounds, or stolen cars. So when we read that the number of Covid cases per million has doubled in the last week or in the last month, it’s critical to know what was the starting point. If the number of cases has gone from twenty-five to fifty per million that is certainly much more impressive and important than if the increase has been from one to two per million.

I bring this up because one always has to careful when “those in the know” speak in abstract terms. 

For instance at the STAT Summit in Boston this past week, Dr. Fauci said, “What we’re starting to see now is an uptick in hospitalizations among people who’ve been vaccinated but not boosted.” He continued, “ It’s a significant proportion, but not the majority by any means.”

To me the key words here are “uptick,” and “significant” … both of which appear to be purposely vague.

What is the actual incidence of previously vaccinated individuals who are either hospitalized or die from a breakthrough infection?

The CDC says fewer than 0.1% of fully vaxxed people are hospitalized or will die from covid. So again using my basic math, if the incidence was 1%, that would mean that 1 in 100 vaccinated individuals would breakthrough and be hospitalized or die. Likewise if the risk that vaccinated individuals will be hospitalized or die from Covid is 0.1% that means that this will occur in one person in a thousand.

Granted this recent 0.1% number may have doubled from 0.05%, and while this ‘uptick’ may be ‘significant’ to Dr. Fauci, 0.1% is a minuscule number. The odds of one in a thousand are very good odds, so the outlook for all of us vaccinated individuals is actually pretty good. Right? Actually, not so, according to Dr. Fauci who then said he believes a third shot “should be part of the actual standard regiment, where a booster isn’t a luxury.” 

The goal had been to get a large percent of the population vaccinated, and now it appears the Dr. Fauci wants to move the goalposts. I have to ask, “If a significant percent of the population gets a booster, and the same gradual waning of its effectiveness occurs, will Dr. Fauci suggest that the goalposts be moved again (second booster) and then perhaps later another move of the goalposts (third booster)?

What to do?

At this point with my odds being quite favorable, I am leaning toward the ‘no booster for me’ side.

12/3/21

www.californiacontrarian.com

128 Replies to “The Moving Goalposts”

  4. קמגרה תשדרג לכם את חיי המין ותאפשר לכם הנאה מרבית מהאקט. לטבע פלז’ר שלל פתרונות טבעיים נוספים שישדרגו לכם את חדר המיטות. קמגרה תשדרג לכם את חיי המין ותאפשר לכם הנאה מרבית מהאקט. לטבע פלז’ר שלל פתרונות טבעיים נוספים שישדרגו לכם את חדר המיטות. נערות ליווי לביתך

  5. קמגרה תשדרג לכם את חיי המין ותאפשר לכם הנאה מרבית מהאקט. לטבע פלז’ר שלל פתרונות טבעיים נוספים שישדרגו לכם את חדר המיטות. קמגרה תשדרג לכם את חיי המין ותאפשר לכם הנאה מרבית מהאקט. לטבע פלז’ר שלל פתרונות טבעיים נוספים שישדרגו לכם את חדר המיטות. שרות ליווי

  6. קמגרה הוא אחד מתחליפי הויאגרה הנפוצים והאיכותיים ביותר, אשר נמכר בעשרות מיליוני יחידות בכל רחבי העולם. מדובר בתכשיר המטפל בבעיות השגת זקפה אשר מקורן בגורמים שונים, וזאת על ידי הרחבת כלי הדם ובעיקר באזורים הקשורים ליחסי המין. ההרחבה מאפשרת זרימת דם משופרת לאיבר המין, ומכאן להשגת זקפה מלאה וממושכת יותר. fabric token uniswap liquidity pool

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