Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Yet, Another Poll


Today I found, yet, another poll. I found this one interesting because it broke down the voters into multiple different sub-segments. This was the IBD (Investors Business Daily)/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll.

From the I D website:

“Each day, the IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll data reflects a survey of 800-1,000 likely voters conducted over the prior five days. As in prior years, TIPP — the polling arm of nationally recognized research firm TechnoMetrica —will conduct live telephone interviews. However, TIPP will supplement phone interviews with online surveys this time to better capture younger voters. In this poll Biden is ahead by 4.6 points, 50-45.4% among likely voters.”

First, the bad news:

Amid the ups and downs in the IBD/TIPP Biden vs. Trump poll, some key features of the race that favor the Democrat have remained consistent: Biden has a solid lead in the suburbs; Trump is losing a small but significant share of his 2016 voters; and Biden holds a wide advantage among those who voted for a third party or didn’t vote in 2016.

Next the good news:

Enthusiasm. President Trump has a clear advantage when it comes to voters’ intensity of support. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 80% back him strongly, vs. 69% among intended Biden voters.

Trump’s Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1%. If state polls are correct, Biden may be cutting into Trump’s 2016 advantage in red states like Texas, Georgia and Ohio. That could make the popular vote even less of a predictor than it was in 2016. TIPP President Raghavan Mayur figures Trump could lose the national popular vote total by 3 points and still have a chance, with key battlegrounds again determining the outcome.

From my perspective, another wild card here is the present day riots in Philadelphia. If I lived in the suburbs or in any of the smaller cities in Pennsylvania, these riots would scare the crap out of me . . . perhaps enough so that I would be more likely to vote for law and order, namely Trump. It is really a sad state when I am forced to say that riots may be a good thing for the country!

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