Posted on by Californiacontrarian

The Left Hand . . .


Let’s briefly review the logic of lockdowns. In the beginning there was actually some logic involved. In case you don’t recall the logic of locking down everybody and just about everything was to insure that there were enough ventilators and ICU beds available to care for those who were very ill as a consequence of Covid 19. However, after that initial deluge of cases, things changed. (BTW: whenever you read an article about Covid and you see that the number of cases “surged,” or are now “surging,” you already know that the article is of the “woe are we” genre. Angry mobs can surge, waves can surge, but the number of Covid cases can increase or climb, but not surge.)

At present there are plenty of ventilators and  plenty of ICU beds . . . so why are we still in some sort of lockdown? The reason is because the strike zone has changed, and appears to continue to change often. In the guise of appearing scientific. Here in California those ‘who know best’ have made up four different levels of alarm . . . four different tiers with color codes and scary words like “widespread,” “substantial,” etc. As best I can tell these tiers are all arbitrary, err all “made up!” (I am still searching for any scientific data that actually backs up these tiers.) For example, a case rate of >7.0/ 100,000 county residents for two weeks in a row automatically drops that county down a tier with the accompanying closure of some businesses. Why 7.0? Why not 7.1 or 7.5?  Did someone throw a dart at a dartboard to come up with this hard and fast cutoff?

Here in San Diego County(SDC), there is an interesting left-hand, right-hand dichotomy occurring before our very eyes. The most recent stats indicate that the last measured incidence rose to 7.9 cases per 100,000 residents in SDC. OMG – a “surge!” If this case rate sustains at >7.0 for another week, then according to the arbitrary tier criterion, SDC will drop from “substantial” to “widespread,” with the accompanying dire re-closures of more businesses. (ICU beds are still okay, and ventilators are in surplus . . . remember these were the original concerns that led to lockdowns.)

So what is the dichotomy? SDC case rates are “surging,” so, I guess, too bad for all of the consequent economic hardship. The fly in the ointment, so to speak, is that the recent increase in the number of county cases is due to the recent cases in students returning to San Diego State University. Thus far SDSU has 676 definite plus nine probable Covid cases . . . perhaps more precise to say 676 positive tests, as the vast majority of these “cases” have minimal or no symptoms. These student “cases” do not put our ICU beds or our ventilators at risk, as these young 18-22 year olds very rarely get sick enough to require hospitalization. The case rate in SDC if SDSU students are not counted is 6.0/100,000 county residents . . . oops! Let me get this straight . . . the state government is on the verge of instituting a more severe state ordered economic lockdown on SDC, because college students are having more positive tests.

What makes this situation bordering on the even more absurd is that “the left hand,” SDSU is planning on a “surge” of mandatory testing of the 2400 students living on campus over the next few days . . . this occurring while “the right hand” is potentially going to be punished because “the left hand” is going to discover a bunch of positive tests in low risk individuals, most of whom have little or no symptoms.

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