Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Covid . . . Super-spreaders


I have repeatedly noticed that some of the coronavirus infections are often referred to as “super-spreader events” (SSEV). These events seem to have not only a high number of resultant infected individuals, but also a higher mortality rate.

Why is that?

In my mind the main question is whether SSEV are due to a “super-spreader,” individual (SS) who, for whatever reason, has the potential to infect a large number of people. Perhaps this SS imparts an increased “viral load” to others. On the other hand could the venue be the main reason for a SSEV? Is it a combination of both?

At this point, some feel that a “super-spreader” (SS), doesn’t necessarily indicate that a person is more contagious than others, or that they’re shedding more viral particles, but rather they think that it is the circumstances rather than the person that cause a SSEV. However others surmise that a SS could be someone with relatively weak immune systems or those in the early stages of their illness. In both of these situations, the viral load is elevated, which suggests they may be more contagious. The so-called “R-naught” (R0) is the average number of individuals that a single infected individual spreads the virus to. The R0 is only an average, and could it be possible that a SS could infect 8 -10 other individuals . . . for whatever reason.

Who knows?

Perhaps, like I mentioned above, could it be the venue rather than the individual that is the main culprit in these SSEV? Perhaps a venue that has a greater number of people in a confined space facilitates a SSEV.

Most super-spreader events are similar: The infected person attends an indoor gathering with lots of people in close contact, like a religious service, choir practice, or birthday party. Okay I get that, a lot of people in a relatively compressed space, but what I don’t get is why those infected at a SSEV seem to have a higher mortality. It almost seems that in these situations we are dealing with a Covid Superman.

For instance : (infected/total exposed – deaths)

A choir practice in Washington = 53/61 – 2

Church in Arkansas – 35/65 – 2

Chicago religious service then birthday party ; 16/ – 3 died

In the same vein, roughly 10% of COVID-19 cases appear to have caused around 80% of new infections. Why is it that the other 90% of Covid-19 cases are responsible for only 20% of new cases? Is it the individual or the venue, whether that be a crowded church, a business convention, or crowded living conditions.

Speaking of crowded living conditions, according to an article that I just read on the WSJ there is an interesting relationship between the virus’s spread and it’s relationship to crowded homes. In NYC the areas hardest hit were not those with the densest population, but rather those with the greatest household crowding. “Crowded homes’” are defined by the census as having more than one occupant per room. (Nursing homes are pretty much “crowded homes” as the majority of the rooms are doubles, and this is without counting the people that work there.) 

The Navajo Nation is made up of about 175,000 people mainly in northeastern Arizona and adjacent northwestern New Mexico. Here 14% of the homes are classified as crowded, and 18% of homes have five or more people. In the Navajo Nation, in general, there is a strong correlation between the percentage of crowded households and the Covid cases per 100,000 population. The Navajo Nation’s death rate from Covid-19 recently topped the death rate in New York state! 

Is the crowded housing situation in the Navajo Nation and their high death rate from Covid-19 due to the venue (the crowded houses) or does it have something to do with individuals who are super-spreaders?

We might get a clue to our answer, if we look at California where the three counties with the highest Covid rates – Kings County, Imperial County, and Los Angeles County – are majority Latino and Black and have some of the highest rates of household crowding in the country.

At this stage, one thing is clear . . . not much is really known yet about the spread of this Wuhan virus, but to my way of thinking the concentration of the virus that one is exposed to in conjunction with the length of the exposure must be related to the severity of the infection.

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