Posted on by Californiacontrarian

COVID-19; What Is Practical ?

The last I heard this Coronavirus (COVID-29) is in 99 of 195 countries, and has infected over 105,000 people. Keep in mind that these numbers are increasing almost every hour, and certainly every day. Some are comparing COVID-19 to the 1918 flu pandemic, which, according to the CDC, had a mortality rate of > 2.5% compared to a mortality of <0.1% with other influenza pandemics. The WHO has recently revised the mortality rate of COVID-19 to 3.4%.

Okay, wash your hands and keep them away from your face. Now, just about everybody has heard these simple precautions, but yesterday I still found workers at various businesses extending their hand to shake my hand. This is discouraging news, as this is a relatively simple way to spread this infection from person to person. The estimated R0 of COVID-19 is 2-3. (This means the the average infected person will spread this infection to 2-3 others.) According to The Lancet, this suggests that 50-60% of the population could well eventually be infected, because the population is naive to this new virus.

This is all bad news!

How should individuals, and how should the country approach COVID-19? Obviously the U.S.A. cannot impose mandatory quarantines on individuals, like was done in China. Individuals could certainly quarantine themselves . . . but for how long? What is practical?

 Should individuals voluntarily restrict themselves from situations where there will be large crowds? Some would say, obviously yes, but what if you had tickets to March Madness? These tickets are not cheap, and you may have been waiting a long time for them. Going to a Final Four game may be on your Bucket List. What to do? What is practical? 

In the same vein, the games that lead up to the Final Four will also expect 10-20,000 or so at multiple games on multiple different days at multiple different sites, all high population centers. Would anyone dare recommend that the NCAA cancel this tournament? Perhaps these games should be played in empty arenas, devoid of fans. What is practical?

In Italy, there have already been soccer games played in empty stadiums. Of course, there is an ongoing outbreak in Italy, so this restricting of the fans seems logical. However, in San Jose, the profession hockey team (N.H.L.) reportedly refused a request to play its game in an empty arena, as was suggested. There are multiple professional basketball, professional hockey, and professional soccer games being played every day. Just about all in high population centers. Should these be cancelled or be played in empty arenas or stadiums? What is practical? 
Should the fact that every restriction and cancellation will have an economic consequence be of any importance? Cancelled airline flights, cancelled conventions, cancelled sporting events, and cancelled festivals all have economic consequences. For example the upcoming South by Southwest (SXSW) festival in Austin typically attracts about 100,000 people. Should it be cancelled? What would be the economic consequences for the city of Austin? What is practical?

I do not pretend to have the answers to these practical questions, but keep in mind that “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet”!

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