Month: January 2025

Even though it was almost fifty years ago that I lived in Florida, I remember that hurricanes were a big deal. However back then we did not have google and the weather channel with the up to the minute forecasts that we have now. Back then we had paper ‘hurricane tracking maps’ on which we could mark the daily latitude and longitude of the upcoming storm and foresee in which direction the hurricane was headed. As I recall these somewhat primitive ‘hurricane tracking maps,’ were not that precise, at forecasting exactly where landfall would occur, but we could see the storm coming.
As I look at some aspects of today’s economy I sense that a big storm is coming. Now while I can see what is coming, in a way this is similar to my antiquated somewhat imprecise ‘hurricane tracking map’ in that my forecast is imprecise. Here I am referring to the economy and what is coming.
First off the present state of credit card debt is very concerning. From Hot Air:
“Defaults on US credit card loans have hit the highest level since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, in a sign that lower-income consumers’ financial health is waning after years of high inflation.
Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50 per cent from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years, according to industry data collated by BankRegData. Write-offs, which occur when lenders decide it is unlikely a borrower will make good on their debts, are a closely watched measure of significant loan distress.
“High-income households are fine, but the bottom third of US consumers are tapped out,” said Mark Zandi, the head of Moody’s Analytics. “Their savings rate right now is zero.”
The sharp rise in defaults is a sign of how consumers’ personal finances are becoming increasingly stretched after years of high inflation, and as the Federal Reserve has left borrowing costs at elevated levels.
“The share of consumers carrying at least some card debt is pervasive, at 74.5%, per PYMNTS Intelligence research. While that percentage is more or less static across income levels, it leaps to more than 90% for consumers living paycheck to paycheck and having trouble paying their bills.”
This certainly cannot be good for the economy.
But there is more.
Janet Yellen at Treasury has been busy draining the cash reserves even as she warns about an imminent and critical debt ceiling event.
From EJAntoni PhD:
“The federal debt has fallen $77 billion over the last 2 days, but only b/c Treasury has simultaneously drained $104 billion from its cash account; sure seems like Yellen is trying to set up her replacement at Treasury for failure.
Debt limit kicks in Jan 1 and will almost immediately bite b/c the gov’t is constantly borrowing to pay its bills; an artificially low debt on that date (fed by draining Treasury cash) also sets the borrowing limit artificially low, so extraordinary measures won’t last as long.

According to Jim Rickards:
A recession is likely. Trump’s policies will be good for the economy over the next two to four years, but the next six to nine months will likely be the legacy of Biden’s inflation, excess spending, deficits and regulatory burdens that are pointing to a recession now. This may resemble Reagan’s first term when he had a recession (1981-1982) in the beginning of his administration but had awesome growth (1983-1986) coming out of it. Recessions happen. Politically it’s good to get them out of the way at the start of your term so you can finish strong.

So while Yellen is busy making herself look good, her manipulation of the debt can only lead to trouble in the near future. When? … like my old ‘hurricane tracking map’ I can see the big storm coming, but cannot be precise as to when.
1/4/25

As I have previously said, the first part will be easy, but the longer it goes the harder it will get. Here I am talking about the challenge ahead for Tom Homan, the incoming border-czar for President-elect Trump, who has said that “Homan will be in charge of all deportation of illegal aliens back to their country of origin.”
As I have said before the initial part of Homan’s plan to deport the estimated 12.5 million illegal aliens will be straightforward. After first completely closing off the border, he will first target those who have a criminal record and those in Tren de Aragua. No one except the most ardent pro-illegal immigration folks will object to rounding up and deporting those groups. Even the NY Times and the WaPo will be silent when these criminals are corralled. However there will be innocent bystanders caught up in this process … by innocent bystanders I am referring to mainly women, children, and young families who have illegally crossed the border with the hope of gaining access to a better life. Here Homan and ICE are going to have a problem with “perception,” as many in the general public will not be sympathetic to deporting a young family and their children solely because they are here illegally.
As I have written before, I actually do not have much of a problem with this group. I have been to Honduras and have a vivid picture of the poverty that they are attempting to escape from. I get it! Does this group actually realize that they are breaking the law by coming across the border illegally? For many, I doubt it. Keep in mind that for the most part, this is not a well-educated group, and their lives back home are ones of true poverty. Here I have somewhat of a moral dilemma. Other than Homan being able to boast that he has done what he promised … “deporting all illegals,” what will really be accomplished? Many of these individuals are working and thus contributing to our society. Perhaps those who are not presently contributing can be given an arbitrary period of time to get a job and thus pay taxes … i.e. to contribute. However, these individuals should not be able to become citizens. They should never be allowed to vote.
As I have said before perhaps a solution to this impasse is the compromise establishment of a national voter ID. This group of illegals can stay put in exchange for the establishment of a nationwide voter ID by the 2028 election. In order to get a valid voter ID, one must be a citizen. For me, the problem is thus solved.
Stay; produce; but do not vote.
Other options? As pointed out by Jeff Davidson on Townhall another possible solution to this predicament for someone whose goal is to become a true US citizen, is for him/her to voluntarily deport themselves and get in a queue to become legal immigrants on a first-come first-serve basis. Those awaiting their turn can actually become citizens in the future after legal immigration.

I predict that this issue could become a real tear-jerker in the not too distant future. Why not get ahead of it now?

1/3/25

With all the hoopla about recent election and some of the bizarre and disingenuous things that Joe Biden is rushing to do before his term expires, there has been a dearth of any propaganda on ‘climate change,’ and how the libs want to save us from some unspecified future thing. In perusing some of the things I have written in the past, I came across my blog from 11/15/22, titled “embodied emissions.”

The following is a reprint of that blog:
Prior to reading an article from “tech crunch.com” by Mark Mills, I had never heard of “embodied emissions.” After reading a few salient points from that Mills piece, it becomes clear why “embodied emissions” is a dirty word that is, by necessity, stricken from from the Go Green EV Bible.
(If you should desire to read this long but very informative article go to:
“https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/22/the-tough-calculus-of-emissions-and-the-future-of-evs/“)

Here are but a few of some important things you need to know about “embodied emissions” from that Mills article:
“A growing body of research points to the likelihood that widespread replacement of conventional cars with EVs would likely have a relatively small impact on global emissions. And it’s even possible that the outcome would increase emissions.

The issue is not primarily about the emissions resulting from producing electricity. Instead, it’s what we know and don’t know about what happens before an EV is delivered to a customer, namely, the “embodied” emissions arising from the labyrinthine supply chains to obtain and process all the materials needed to fabricate batteries.

All products entail embodied emissions that are “hidden” upstream in production processes, whether it’s a hamburger, a house, a smartphone or a battery. To see the implications at the macro level, credit France’s High Climate Council for a study issued last year. The analysis found that France’s claim of achieving a national decline in carbon dioxide emissions was illusory. Emissions had in fact increased and were some 70% higher than reported once the embodied emissions inherent in the country’s imports were counted.

One review of 50 academic studies found estimates for embodied emissions to fabricate a single EV battery ranged from a low of about eight tons to as high as 20 tons of CO2. Another recent technical analysis put the range at about four to 14 tons. The high end of those ranges is nearly as much CO2 as is produced by the lifetime of fuel burned by an efficient conventional car. Again, that’s before the EV is delivered to a customer and driven its first mile.
Embodied emissions can be devilishly difficult to accurately quantify, and nowhere are there more complexities and uncertainties than with EVs. While an EV self-evidently emits nothing while driving, about 80% of its total lifetime emissions arise from the combination of the embodied energy in fabricating the battery and then in “fabricating” electricity to power the vehicle. The remaining comes from manufacturing the non-fuel parts of the car. That ratio is inverted for a conventional car where about 80% of lifecycle emissions come I directly from fuel burned while driving, and the rest comes from the embodied energy to make the car and fabricate gasoline.”

To me, until there is some mention of the “embodied emissions” in the discussions of EVs, any conclusions about the CO2 benefits of EVs is like playing Three-card Monte, a classic “short con” in which the mark has no chance whatsoever of winning, at any point in the game.
11/15/22

After the upcoming Trump inauguration on 1/20/25, I doubt that there will be any pushing of EVs on the general public, who have little interest in them. Whatever happens with the EV craze, do not forget about embodied emissions.
1/1/25